Doc’s Sports Blog Sports blog with a focus on sports betting - sports gambling blog

By Robert Ferringo

Below is a comprehensive look at the bubble teams that are realistically being considered for the NCAA Tournament and a little March Madness. While I wouldn’t bet on the NCAA Selection Committee not screwing someone over I would say that the teams I have below are fighting for the last nine spots in the NCAA field.

CLICK HERE to take a look at my most recent NCAA Tournament Projections. As you can see, my last 10 teams in are:

56. UNLV
57. UTEP (will lose their bid if they don’t win the CUSA Tournament)
58. Florida
59. Illinois
60. Connecticut
61. Georgia Tech
62. Mississippi
63. Virginia Tech
64. Notre Dame
65. Washington (bid stolen by St. Mary’s)

Well, St. Mary’s stole an at-large bid last night by virtue of their West Coast Conference tournament title. Unfortunately for the bubble teams sweating out this last week that likely won’t be the last bid stolen. But for now that list of 10 open slots has been cut to nine. Below are the teams that I think are battling for those slots. The top three - UNLV, Florida and Illinois - are pretty securely in the field, as you can see by their resume. And from there you can rationally compare the squads that are competing for those last six spots. Keep all of these resumes in mind this week (and the numbers will cahnge with wins and losses all over the country) when you are listening to that tout and fraud Joe Lunardi this week try to tell you who is in and who is out. Just remember: Lunardi isn’t on the selection committee. His opinion, really, doesn’t mean dick. So nothing he says has any relevance for anything nor does it serve anything more than to keep his self-important position and line his pockets. (And yes, I think I know more basketball than Joe Lunardi.)

Here’s the real story of the NCAA Tournament bubble:

SAFE BETS (teams No. 56-58):
UNLV
RPI: 47
KP Rating: 36
Strength of Schedule: 99
Nonconference SOS: 138
Key Wins: Louisville, New Mexico, BYU
Skinny: The Rebels completely fit the profile and they are in. The Mountain West should have gotten more bids last year and this year they take advantage of the Pac-10’s demise.

FLORIDA
RPI: 53
KP Rating: 49
Strength of Schedule: 58
Nonconference SOS: 215
Key Wins: Florida State, Michigan State, Mississippi, Tennessee
Skinny: Their terrible nonconference schedule is balanced by key wins over Florida State and Michigan State. The Tennessee win really punched their ticket.

ILLINOIS
RPI: 73
KP Rating: 56
Strength of Schedule: 14
Nonconference SOS: 114
Key Wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Skinny: The RPI is horrifying and only 10 teams since 1991 have gotten into the field with an RPI of 60 or lower. But I think some action over the next week is going to get that number down. They have won big games in conference (Michigan State and Wisconsin) and have solid wins out of conference (at Clemson and Vanderbilt). Overall it’s a solid body of work despite a late free fall.

BET THEY ARE IN…FOR NOW (teams No. 59-64):
CONNECTICUT
RPI: 55
KP Rating: 45
Strength of Schedule: 3
Nonconference SOS: 56
Key Wins: West Virginia, Villanova, Texas
Skinny: I know that they have been a mess over the last couple months. But if people are going to consider teams playing without their best players (Notre Dame and Ohio State are getting passes and extra credit for playing without their players) then UConn should get credit for their coach going MIA midseason. I just don’t see how you can ignore the SOS and they have the requisite key wins.

GEORGIA TECH
RPI: 44
KP Rating: 29
Strength of Schedule: 13
Nonconference SOS: 256
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Clemson, Duke
Skinny: Here is another team where the numbers just don’t make sense. How do they have a higher RPI than Illinois by 30 points when they have played comparable overall schedules and Illinois has played such a better nonconference slate? Tech will make the field – barely – but one more win should do the trick. This team played its way onto the bubble.

MISSISSIPPI
RPI: 56
KP Rating: 52
Strength of Schedule: 68
Nonconference SOS: 195
Key Wins: Kansas State, UTEP
Skinny: This team actually may have done itself a disservice by not playing in the first round of the SEC Tournament. That would have given them a chance to pick up a win over a bottom feeder and pad the resume a bit. Instead they will get a quarterfinal matchup against Tennessee (most likely) and that could create a “win and in” situation.

VIRGINIA TECH
RPI: 50
KP Rating: 28
Strength of Schedule: 67
Nonconference SOS: 327
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson
Skinny: This team may be good enough to be in the field but you have to penalize them for playing such a sorry-ass nonconference schedule. Even their wins in the ACC aren’t that impressive as they didn’t beat any of the top-tier teams. This club is a fraud.

NOTRE DAME
RPI: 57
KP Rating: 47
Strength of Schedule: 69
Nonconference SOS: 341
Key Wins: Marquette, Connecticut, Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia
Skinny: The Irish are another team that I don’t think are being penalized enough for playing one of the six worst nonconference schedules in the country. They didn’t leave home and they didn’t even bring in any decent teams. I know they are hot now but isn’t this supposed to be about the whole body of work?

BET THEY NEED TO MAKE UP SOME GROUND - AND GET LUCKY (team No. 65)
UTEP
RPI: 41
KP Rating: 39
Strength of Schedule: 145
Nonconference SOS: 301
Key Wins: Memphis, swept UAB
Skinny: If they don’t win their conference tournament I don’t think this team will make it in. I do think that they are talented enough to be in the field of 65 and are one of the best teams. But they didn’t play anyone. I think it would be very ridiculous (but not unprecedented) to put UAB in over UTEP when the Miners swept the season series.

WASHINGTON
RPI: 33
KP Rating: 49
Strength of Schedule: 56
Nonconference SOS: 120
Key Wins: Cal, Texas A&M
Skinny: I think I would take Washington before I took a lot of these other teams and I’m actually stunned that we’re talking about as many as three bids from the Pac-10. If a random team (like an Arizona) wins the tournament but if Washington makes a good showing they could join Cal in the field.

SAN DIEGO STATE
RPI: 43
KP Rating: 33
Strength of Schedule: 86
Nonconference SOS: 108
Key Wins: UNLV, New Mexico
Skinny: This team got screwed last year with a much better team so I can see them getting the shaft again this year. They are shaping up to be the new Florida State, which was the 66th team like three years running. A run to the Mountain Finals may punch their ticket. Anything short of that is trouble.

DAYTON
RPI: 51
KP Rating: 44
Strength of Schedule: 71
Nonconference SOS: 77
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Xavier
Skinny: The Flyers just have so many close calls that didn’t go their way. They have about a half-dozen losses by four points or less. But they needed to win some of those games. They are good enough to be in the field but they haven’t done enough. If they beat Xavier in the second round they will make it very, very interesting.

BET THEY DON’T HAVE A SHOT - OUTSIDE OF WINNING THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (See you in the NIT):

SOUTH FLORIDA
RPI:
KP Rating: 74
Strength of Schedule: 29
Nonconfernece SOS: 211
Key Wins: Pitt, Georgetown, Connecticut
Skinny: They really aren’t that far away from Notre Dame. And both of their losses to ND are what is keeping them out of the field ahead of the Irish. And both of those games came down to the last two minutes. They would have to beat Georgetown and Syracuse to make this happen. But that’s ridiculous.

CHARLOTTE
RPI: 97
KP Rating: 66
Strength of Schedule: 77
Nonconference SOS: 129
Key Wins: Louisville, Richmond, Temple
Skinny: They lost six of their last seven games and came close-but-not-close-enough from some critical wins. If they could have just split (say 4-3) those last seven I think they would be on the cusp. But barring a crazy run this team is out.

RHODE ISLAND
RPI: 75
KP Rating: 39
Strength of Schedule: 82
Nonconference SOS: 71
Key Wins: Oklahoma State
Skinny: This is where Joe Lunardi is a dickhead. He’s had Rhode Island yo-yoing in and out for weeks. How? What has this team done? They beat Ok. State. But is that better than Mississippi beating Kansas State? No way. And Ole Miss plays in a major (see: better) conference. Rhode Island has about a 1 percent shot.

ARIZONA STATE
RPI: 52
KP Rating: 37
Strength of Schedule: 65
Nonconference SOS: 161
Key Wins: None
Skinny: Just the fact that they are in the discussion is solid work. But they have no solid wins and the best victory on the docket may be a win over SDSU. That doesn’t do it.

UAB
RPI: 40
KP Rating: 61
Strength of Schedule: 100
Nonconference SOS: 147
Key Wins: Butler
Skinny: This team is 0-4 against Memphis and UTEP, so I don’t see any way that they are even in the discussion.

MEMPHIS
RPI: 46
KP Rating: 50
Strength of Schedule: 133
Nonconference SOS: 246
Key Wins: None
Skinny: This team is getting credit for close losses to Kansas, UTEP, Tennessee and Gonzaga. But they have zero quality wins so I don’t see any possible way that they can make the field outside of winning the CUSA tournament.

By Robert Ferringo

I know that everyone is college hoops crazy – myself included – but that won’t stop this capper from looking forward to one of the most lucrative sports on the board: Major League Baseball betting.

Now, last year I had accurate 2010 MLB season win totals and 2010 MLB season wins over/unders by mid-February. That is to say that they were consistently posted all over the Interweb and in Vegas by about Feb. 17. Well, today is Feb. 27 and 2010 MLB season win totals are scarce. And by “scarce” I mean that you can’t hardly find them.

I found some numbers at The Greek so I thought I would throw them up in case there is anyone looking for 2010 MLB Vegas season win totals or 2010 MLB Vegas season win over/unders. (Hey, I know it’s not Vegas, but you know what I mean. Or at least hopefully the search engines will.)

I’m not going to tip my hands on my initial reactions to these totals. However, I will say that there is at least one 7-Unit play and one 6-Unit play staring us right in the face right now.

Here we go:

Arizona 85.5
Atlanta 82.5
Baltimore 70.5
Boston 94.5
Chicago White Sox 82.5
Chicago Cubs N/A
Cincinnati 79.5
Cleveland 83.5
Colorado 79.5
Detroit 80.5
Florida 79.5
Houston 76.5
Kansas City 74.5
L.A. Angels 87.5
L.A. Dodgers 84.5
Milwaukee 80.5
Minnesota 85.5
N.Y. Mets 89.5
N.Y. Yankees 96.5
Oakland 81.5
Philadelphia 89.5
Pittsburgh 68.5
San Diego 68.5
San Francisco 79.5
Seattle 79.5
St. Louis 83.5
Tampa Bay 87.5
Texas 77.5
Toronto 78.5
Washington 65.5

Contributed by Strike Point Sports

After hearing about the Big Ten’s further inquiry into a possible expansion of its conference, it made me think about some fun I could have about changing around the nature of the conferences and interchanging teams based on locations, prestige shifts and just interesting, new match-ups. It’s full-on college basketball season, so at the risk of confusing things and arguing hoops with football, let’s just look at this from the vantage point of college basketball only.

This is purely for fun, but this would rearrange the structure so there are fewer Division I college basketball teams. I know, I know, this system is hardly fool-proof but it is something merely to create some further discussion about the topic and get my opinion on what I would do if I had my say. Some conferences have been kept intact, only adding new teams, and I have also created new, original leagues where I see fit.

Big Ten
The Big Ten wants a 12th member and has for quite some time. We’ve heard schools such as Notre Dame, Rutgers and Missouri. I feel Marquette fits perfectly location wise and could build a nice rivalry with Wisconsin whom they already schedule. Talent and quality of the program also works well here.

Michigan
Penn State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Michigan State
Indiana
Iowa
Illinois
Wisconsin
Northwestern
Purdue
Marquette

Big East
I think the Big East is too large right now. I mean, any time you have a first team all-conference made up of seven or eight guys you know it doesn’t work. I think Siena and Temple are two mid-majors that have proven enough to find a spot with some openings. BC is a natural fit from their former Big East days and Rhode Island is another program I believe can do just as well as teams like a St. John’s or Cincinnati who move elsewhere.

North        South
Syracuse    Pittsburgh
Villanova   Georgetown
UConn       Pittsburgh
St. John’s   West Virginia
Providence Seton Hall
Siena          Boston College
URI            Temple

ACC
Overall the biggest change I made was to simply split the league down the middle like the ACC football conference does. Teams can still play league games with each other, but this way is a little more concise for conference seeding purposes.

Coastal        Continental
Maryland      Duke
N.C. State    North Carolina
Miami (FL)    Wake Forest
Richmond    Charlotte
Clemson      Virginia Tech
Virginia        VCU

Mid-South (new league)
Here we show off our first new conference. We take several top programs from other leagues where they never really fit location wise. Also adding several proven mid-major programs that work and can compete right off the bat. Let us introduce the Mid-South.
Read More

By Robert Ferringo

Real quick one here - just because I saw this while I was blogging the college basketball conference tournament schedules - about the dude from Trinity College and the squash highlights that ESPN is running.

I’m of two minds of the “highlight” (apparently they won like their one-millionth straight game and their 12th straight national title) but had to chime in on the shot of the douchebag on Trinity scoring the title-winning point and then getting in the face of the Yale player (figures Yale would be good at squash) and screaming like a maniac.

First, that guy is a douchebag. I mean, buddy, IT’S SQUASH. You are a SQUASH PLAYER! And you have to realize that you just look like a dick. The kid was twice the size of the Yale dude and for a tem that’s won about 1 billion straight matches you would think they’d be able to “act like they’ve been there”. Instead, I hope this kid gets torn up by all the whiny sportswriters, the assclowns on ESPN (please be a segment Around the Horn, please be a segment on Around the Horn - wait, is that show still on TV? - please be a segment on Around the Horn) and the Knee-Jerk, Overreactionary, Blow-Everything-Out-Of-Proportion, Instant Punditry Media Monster that our society now lives and dies with. (Remember that coach that was fired after his high school girls team won like 100-0? I hope this is worse. Because, in my opinion, this dick was way more unsportsmanlike than the coach of that team. This would be like if that coach or his players were screaming in the faces of those opposing girls during/after the game.) I mean, the same people that got dodgeball banned in schools across the country (pussies) should have a field day with the big, bad bully picking on the little Yale squash dork.

On the other hand, I think it’s pretty funny. And I can’t go too nuts on it because I have done the same thing, plenty of times, in my career. But then again, I never said I wasn’t a dick too.

So go get ‘em Crazy Media Machine. Tear up those unrepentant assholes on the Trinity squash team! Have no mercy!

Update: The dickhead’s name is Baset Chaudhry, a senior, and the goofy, terrified kid is freshman Kenneth Chan. Funny, if this had been a big white guy doing this to a black guy or vice versa, you think anyone would have played the race card? Apparently no one cares when it’s two foreign-sounding elitist tools. Oh, and apparently not only did Chaudhry get right in the little dude’s face, but allegedly Chaudhry went back and tried to push Chan after first celebrating with his other Trinity teammates.

Update 2: I’m obviously not the first on the story, but I did beat Deadspin. And now that it’s on there you can bet it’s going to spread quickly.

By Robert Ferringo

Earlier today I posted a day-by-day 2010 men’s college basketball conference tournament schedule. Below is a look at the college basketball conference tournament schedule in a conference-by-conference tournament format.

For each college basketball conference tournament I listed the site of the tournament, the dates of the conference tournament, the favorite in the 2010 conference tournament, and the television station that will be carrying each conference tourney. Enjoy:

Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament
Nashville, Tenn.
March 2-6
Favorite: Jacksonville
ESPN

Big South Conference Tournament
Campus sites (higher seeds)
March 2, 4, 6
Favorite: Coastal Carolina
ESPN2

Ohio Valley Conference Tournament
Nashville, Tenn.
March 2, 5-6
Favorite: Murray State
ESPN2

Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
St. Louis
March 4-7
Favorite: Northern Iowa
CBS

Colonial Athletic Association Tournament
Richmond, Va.
March 5-8
Favorite: Old Dominion
ESPN2

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference Tournament (MAAC)
Albany, N.Y.
March 5-8
Favorite: Siena
ESPN2

Southern Conference Tournament
Chattanooga, Tenn.
March 5-8
Favorite: Wofford
ESPN

West Coast Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
March 5-8
Favorite: Gonzaga
ESPN

Horizon League Tournament
Campus sites (higher seeds)
March 3, 5-6, 9
Favorite: Butler
ESPN

Summit League Tournament
Sioux Falls, S.D.
March 6-9
Favorite: Oakland
ESPN

Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Hot Springs, Ark.
March 3, 6-9
Favorite: Middle Tennessee State
ESPN

Big Sky Conference Tournament
Ogden, Utah
March 6, 9-10
Favorite: Webert State
ESPN

Northeast Conference Tournament (NEC)
Campus sites (higher seeds)
March 4, 7, 10
Favorite: Robert Morris
ESPN2

Patriot League Tournament
Campus sites (higher seeds)
March 3, 7, 12
Favorite:
ESPN2

America East Conference Tournament
Albany, N.Y.
March 5-7, 13
Favorite:
ESPN2

Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament
Atlantic City, N.J.
March 9 (Campus sites); March 12-14
Favorite: Xavier
ESPN and CBS

Big 12 Conference Tournament
Oklahoma City
March 10-13
Favorite: Kansas
ESPN

Big East Conference Tournament
New York
March 9-13
Favorite: Villanova
ESPN

Big West Conference Tournament
Anaheim, Calif.
March 10-13
Favorite: UC-Santa Barbara
ESPN2

Conference USA Tournament
Memphis, Tenn.
March 10-13
Favorite: UTEP
CBS

Mid-American Conference Tournament (MAC)
Cleveland
March 9-13
Favorite: Akron
ESPN2

Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference Tournament (MEAC)
Winston-Salem, N.C.
March 8-13
Favorite: Morgan State
ESPNU

Mountain West Conference Tournament
Las Vegas
March 10-13
Favorite: BYU
Versus

Pacific 10 Conference Tournament (Pac-10)
Los Angeles
March 10-13
Favorite: Cal
CBS

Southwest Athletic Conference Tournament (SWAC)
Birmingham, Ala.
March 10-13
Favorite: Jackson State
ESPNU

Western Athletic Conference Tournament (WAC)
Reno, Nev.
March 9-13
Favorite: Utah State
ESPN2

Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament (ACC)
Atlanta
March 11-14
Favorite: Duke
ESPN

Big Ten Conference Tournament
Indianapolis
March 11-14
Favorite: Purdue
CBS

Southeastern Conference Tournament (SEC)
Tampa, Fla.
March 11-14
Favorite: Kentucky
ESPN

Southland Conference Tournament
Katy, Texas
March 11-14
Favorite: Sam Houston State
ESPN2

Contributed By Nolan Sinclair

The NBA trade deadline has passed and players have made it to their respective teams with hopes of success, buyouts, and possible reservations in the playoffs. Now that the second half has officially gotten here lets take a peek back at the action strictly on the court in our 10 second NBA Week in Review.

ATS Team of the Week: This week the nod goes to the Phoenix Suns. The Suns haven’t been an ATS legend, but they have been an impressive wager against the total. The Suns have fallen short of the total in seven straight games, which included all three games this past week. Not only did Phoenix fall short of the total but their defense seemed to stymie oddsmakers as the Suns were nowhere near the posted line. The closest the Suns came to the set total was 11 points, and the largest disparity was an 88-80 final versus the Hawks in which the total was set at 211.5. Well done Phoenix, I applaud your work on the defensive end of the floor. It is nice to see a team with Steve Nash and Channing Frye playing defense. Wait, what?

Bad Beat of the Week: Let me start this section off by saying I hate typing this paragraph out each week. Over my career I have been on the losing end of many of these types of games and it is impossible to laugh them off. With that said, if you took the ‘over’ on Friday, February 19th in the Miami/Memphis game I feel awful for you. The total was posted at 189 and with Memphis in the game you knew that you had a good shot considering they are a solid offensive ballclub. That opinion proved as wrong as could be as the score at the half was Miami 46 and Memphis 31. Yup, you read that right, the Grizz had 31 first half points. The third quarter was promising for Memphis however as they put up 26 points. The only thing is, Miami only scored 17. Awesome! “It’s OK,” you thought to yourself, “we still have the fourth quarter.” Nope, even the fourth didn’t provide us with points as Miami hit for 13 and Memphis only 19. All of these points left us with a score of 76-76. Wait, OVERTIME. Now we’re talking, we have a shot. Again, nope, each team only scored nine points leaving us with a score of 85-85. Wait, DOUBLE OVERTIME. Now we are talking again, we have a shot, again. Nope. Miami pulls away and wins 100-87, and if you do the quick math, that looks like 187 points falls short of the posted total of 189. Double overtime and we still can’t reach the total of 189? It’s not like we were asking for 220 points. All we needed was 189 damn points. Thanks a lot Miami and Memphis, thanks a lot. I hope bad things happen to you both.

Player of the Week: Russell Westbrook followed up his impressive Rookie/Sophomore game with a very impressive week. Westbrook lead the Thunder to a 3-0 SU week, while averaging 23 points, 11 assists, and eight rebounds a game. Every time I see Westbrook play I get more and more upset that the Knicks didn’t take him when they had the chance. Why is it that whenever there is someone I really want on the Knicks he doesn’t end up there? It all goes back to when they had a chance to draft Ron Artest and instead they took Fredrick Weiss. Those bastards. But I digress. Lets all give Russell Westbrook a round of applause. He has had quite the week and it looks like more outstanding play is in store for this budding star.

By Robert Ferringo

Below is a look at the 2010 college basketball conference tournament schedule. I broke down the completely men’s conference tournaments schedule in a day-by-day format with each 2010 conference tournament listed by the day which it begins.

In reality, March Madness begins with the 2010 college basketball conference tournament schedule. Once these games begin it’s a nation-wide elimination tournament to determine the national champion. It is also the greatest single sporting event in our country.

Here is a day-by-day breakdown of the 2010 college basketball conference tournament schedule, which starts next Tuesday and is the true beginning of March Madness:

March 2
Atlantic Sun (2-6)
Big South (2, 4, 6)
Ohio Valley (2, 5-6)

March 3
Horizon (3, 5-6, 9)
Sun Belt (3, 6-9)
Patriot (3, 7. 12)

March 4
Missouri Valley (4-7)
Northeast (4, 7, 10)

March 5
Colonial (5-8)
Metro Atlantic (5-8)
Southern (5-8)
West Coast (5-8)
America East (5-7, 13)

March 6
Summit (6-9)
Big Sky (6, 9-10)

March 7
None

March 8
MEAC (8-13)

March 9
Atlantic 10 (9, 12-14)
Big East (9-13)
Mid-American (9-13)
WAC (9-13)

March 10
Big 12 (10-13)
Big West (10-13)
Conference USA (10-13)
Mountain West (10-13)
Pac-10 (10-13)
SWAC (10-13)

March 11
ACC (11-14)
Big Ten (11-14)
SEC (11-14)
Southland (11-14)

By Robert Ferringo

There are two reasons that Mississippi State wasn’t a huge play for me:

1) I wanted a number closer to what UK was laying at South Carolina. That number was UK -7 and the Wildcats lost outright. I knew it wouldn’t be there. I figured the line would open at 4.0 and bet bet up around 4.5. I was hoping for 5.0 or 5.5 and then would have made a major move. Instead, it was a 3.5 open, bet down by sharps to 2.5, and bought back by the public (to the tune of 85 percent action on the Cats) up to its present 3.5.

2) This story here about Mississippi State fans getting ahold of DeMarcus Cousins’ cell pone and sending him racist phone and text messages. Now, see, that’s just bad karma. And besides that it serves another important purpose - which will hurt Mississippi State fans and backers. I’m sure it pissed the Wildcats off. The main thing that the Bulldogs had going for them in this game is that it was a letdown spot from the huge Tennessee game and a look ahead spot to a critical matchup with Vanderbilt later this week. But now that MSU fans have gone all “Ghosts of Mississippi” on Cousins you know that Coach Cal and the rest of the team are going to rally around him. This game went from being an afterthought and a potential trap to a game in which the Wildcats will be out for blood. (Forget the fact that Kentucky is full of racists and that those attitudes, in part, led to them running Tubby Smith out.)

At least, that’s the way I see it. Idiot fans have now put their Bulldogs straight in the crosshairs. Maybe Mississippi State will step up, maybe they won’t. Maybe the Wildcats will come out flat, maybe they won’t. But with all of this media attention and with the personal nature of the insults and issues I think that MSU squandered the element of surprise, which was their biggest advantage.

Now, the fact remains that Kentucky hasn’t done dick on the road this year. They have only played five games in opposing gyms this year. They played at Indiana, which is one of the worst teams in the Big 10. They also played at LSU and Auburn, which are the two worst teams in the SEC. And they played at Florida (NIT team) and at South Carolina (NIT team which UK lost to). So this Wildcats team isn’t exactly battle tested. Mississippi State is going to be lively and will be an atmosphere closer to what UK saw in Columbia.

Hopefully the SEC refs - who are the worst of all of the BCS officiating crews; they are notorious “homers” and/or refs that bob on the knob of favorites - will, well, be themselves. And hopefully they give the Bulldogs the same type of slanted homer officiating that the Wildcats have benefitted from all season. But regardless, some stupid off-the-court stuff could jeopardize a huge upset opportunity and a win that would lock up an NCAA invite for Mississippi State.

By Robert Ferringo

Just had to throw this out there:

I haven’t been able to watch the New Mexico-UNLV game, a really big game in the Mountain West, one of my favorite conferences, because the channel that it’s on (CBS College Sports, 613 on DirectTV) has been hijacked by a four-overtime game between TCU and Utah…women. TCU, rocking the sweet pink unis, finally won 105-96. I have to say, I’m not even that mad that they didn’t preempt the game to cut to the UNLV game (which is 40-28, New Mexico, at the half) because that girls game turned out to be a barn burner.

Anyway, just thought that was kind of funny. It also got me thinking about why the Mountain West Conference keeps getting screwed by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. The problem is that they have their own network (The Mountain) and that they have a tie-in with CBS Sports. Since they are never on ESPN anymore (instead we get to watch ugly WAC games featuring Idaho) the Mountain West doesn’t get nearly the respect that it deserves. In fact, that same situation - a tie-in with CBS Sports - is what I think screws over teams from the Atlantic 10 and Conference USA as well. They aren’t on ESPN so ESPN naturally (and vindictively) barely mentions them. The result is that they aren’t in the national consciousness, they generally aren’t involved in the public discussion around tourney time, and because The Public doesn’t get to see them with their own eyes these teams are always disrespected.

This year I think that those three conferences deserve a combined 7 or 8 spots. Dayton, Xavier, Richmond and Temple from the A-10, UNLV, BYU and New Mexico from the Mountain West, and UTEP or the tournament winner from Conference USA. Charlotte also has a great resume and should be in the mix of the last teams in/out and San Diego State is good enough to make a run as well.

But who wants to bet me that this team has to settle for 5 or 6 total spots? I can already see it. And if that is the case then the NCAA has to look long and hard at its selection process and whether or not these conferences are getting a fair shake.

How’s that for a rant started by some girls basketball?

By Robert Ferringo

Last fall I remember reading an article by CBS basketball columnist Gregg Doyel discussing why and how North Carolina has overwhelmed Duke as the dominant power on Tobacco Road. Doyel’s belief was that Coach Mike Krzyzewski was somehow in over his head against Roy Williams and his Heels and that the balance of power in the ACC would not tip back Duke’s way until one of the two coaches retire.

So, after watching over three full months of basketball – if that’s what you call what North Carolina has been doing - I wonder who Doyel has his money on tonight.

Duke will roll down to Chapel Hill tonight to tangle with North Carolina. The Blue Devils are a 5.5-point favorite and the total in this matchup is a blustery 155.5. The spread has actually dipped from a high of 6.0 this morning despite the fact that nearly 70 percent of the action has come in on the Blue Devils.

On paper this game looks like a mismatch. Duke is the No. 7 team in the country and the ACC front-runner with a solid 7-2 conference record and a 19-4 mark overall. The Blue Devils are No. 9 in the country in scoring and No. 88 in defense and have one of the best backcourts in the league. This team is as strong on the interior as it has been in six years and with three veterans – Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith – leading they way they are back in the discussion as a potential Final Four team.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has been a disaster. They are currently 10th out of 12 teams in the ACC standings and have only two wins in nine tries since New Year’s Day. Carolina has been embarrassed in its last two home games, losing by 15 to Virginia (yeah, Virginia) and by 13 to Wake Forest. The Tar Heels have exited the Top 25 after absurdly starting the year in the Top 10 and right now their odds for even making the NCAA Tournament have to be no better than 50-50.

Given that Duke has plenty of built up revenge having to do with three straight losses – and six of seven overall – at the hands of their hated rivals you would think that tonight’s game would get very ugly very quickly.

But if there is anything that I know about college basketball it’s that when things start to seem a bit too easy that’s exactly when bettors get a 2×4 to the dome delivered by the books.

The underdog is 13-4 against the spread in the last 17 meetings and North Carolina is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Beyond that, the reverse line movement on this game (a majority of the bets are coming in on Duke while the line is heading back toward Carolina) suggests that the books may be ready to spring a trap. This will be one of the most heavily bet games of the month. And since Vegas isn’t in the habit of losing money it’s easy to get the feeling that this could be another vintage public burial on the altar of Rivalry Week, with the betting public getting creamed by a “surprise” Carolina win (or at least cover).

From a motivation standpoint it’s obvious that Duke has the revenge upper hand. But I think it’s easy to make the case that this game means infinitely more to the Tar Heels. Right now their postseason aspirations are floundering. They have lost six of seven games overall. They are getting their hated rivals and a Top 10 team on their home floor. Simply put, this game is their Super Bowl. A win here and it doesn’t matter what happens the rest of the month. And for a team as young and as desperate as the Heels what bigger motivation is there?

Further, Duke has been a pretty weak road team this season. On Saturday they narrowly escaped Chestnut Hill with a three-point win over mediocre Boston College. Prior to that they had been floored by Georgetown and had losses at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. Overall the Blue Devils are 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in road games this season.

Duke has been a solid 4-0 SU and ATS in neutral site games against the likes of Connecticut and Gonzaga. But it’s safe to say that the Dean Dome won’t be neutral tonight.

So this is a situation where the Blue Devils could be ambushed and we could have yet another reminder of the magic of the Rivalry Game in college basketball. However, I am still firmly of the belief that any argument for North Carolina is a desperate one at best.

North Carolina has been one of the worst bets in the country this year at 7-14 ATS. Bettors, and the general college hoops loving public, have been very slow to embrace the fact that this is actually just a wretched Tar Heels team. They are No. 294 (of 342) in the country in scoring defense and their guard play is among the worst of any BCS school. The Heels are woefully inexperienced, they have no go-to player, and what was perceived as a strength – their imposing size with six of their top eight players standing 6-8 or taller – has been a weakness because it’s made them slow and awkward on both ends of the floor.

The reality here is that North Carolina has dominated this series recently because they have had far superior talent. But as big of a disparity as there has been on one side of the ledger in the past three years it has swung completely the opposite way this season. If UNC can’t even handle a team like Virginia Tech or Wake Forest I don’t understand how they can play 40 minutes with one of the Top dozen teams in the nation.

Emotion is the ever-present sixth man in college basketball. And one of the most intense rivalries in sports will bring out the best in everyone on the court tonight at North Carolina. But I, for one, will be really surprised if the Tar Heels manage to win this game or even play within a possession or two of the Blue Devils. Duke finally has the upper hand in this series and can finally match up with the size and strength of the Heels underneath. That has been exactly the area where they couldn’t compete over the last several seasons. And when you consider the enormous disparity in the guard play – both from the standpoint of skill and experience – I think it will take a Herculean effort out of a bunch of Heels that have never experienced the emotion of this intense rivalry just to stay competitive.

It’s advantage, Blue Devils. But, as we’ve seen oh so often in this game, you just never know how far a little emotion and the intensity of a great rivalry can carry an undermanned opponent. And one way or another this should be another entertaining chapter in one of the best matchups in all of college basketball.