Doc’s Sports Blog Sports blog with a focus on sports betting - sports gambling blog

By Christopher G. Shepard

The thought of playing against Venus or Serena Williams at Wimbledon must be scary for most players. So I imagine what it must feel like to have to play against the Compton Crew in Ladies Doubles? No. 12 seeded Anna-Lena Groenefeld and Vanie King got the experience first hand yesterday and were easily dispatched in straight sets to put the Williams’ sisters through to the Ladies Doubles Semi-finals.
Don’t let their high (sic)  No. 4 seed fool you; the Williams’ only play doubles when they feel like it. Apparently at Wimbledon they feel like it. The Sisters are the defending Ladies Doubles Champs and they have won three titles at Wimbledon playing on the same side of the net (Of course this does not include Serena’s two or Venus’ five).

The Williams’ will face No. 1 seeds Cara Black and Liezel Huber in the semi-final match. What was marvelous about watching the Sisters win their quarter-final match was how aggressive they were at the net. Shooting bullets down the alleys and obliterating cans of cheese that their opponents served up. If I am a complete head-case like Dinara Safina or a so-so-server like Elena Dementieva I’m more than a little worried about my opponent today.
Of course the Williams did have a quarter-final match on their “off-day” so that might open things up for the Russians, but you know, then again it might not. Yesterday I hit on all four plays and will use my swollen virtual off-shore sports investment account like some poker players use their chips.

924 Elena Dementieva (+375) vs. 925 Serena Williams (-550) 8:15 a.m.
Head-to-Head: 3-5

No. 2 seed Serena will face No. 4 seed Dementieva in the mornings first of two ladies semi-finals matches.  I am sure this comes as an absolute shock to no one that Serena has made it to yet another Grand Slam Semi-Final and will play for the right to face her sister, and avenge a loss last time the sisters me on Centre Court at a Wimbledon Final.

Serena is almost a prohibitive favorite for a few reasons. The first and most glaring is Dementieva’s serve. Granted it has improved vastly over where she was a year ago, but a momentary lapse, or if Dementieva is forced to count on her second serve (about 68 mph one of the slowest in the WTA) Serena will kill the short balls. If Dementieva is able to serve efficiently then she might have a chance to push this match to three sets.
Then you have to consider the level of competition that Dementieva played throughout the fortnight. She played three Russians (how does that happen?) and one Italian. My point is not about where her opponents are from but that not one of Dementieva’s four opponents were seeded. And that is how Dementieva has the same statistic as Serena; not losing a set at Wimbledon this year. Of course this will change for one of the players.

Serena has played with supreme confidence and watching her play you can tell this is not the same Serena we’ve seen that was subject to a slack attitude and mental absences. Serena is as ready as I have seen her in a while. Gamblers should keep in mind that Serena has been beaten twice in 15 semi-finals and has won her last seven Grand Slam semi-finals in a row. Yes, Serena only gets better the deeper into tournaments she goes..
However, she might not even need to do all the work herself. Dementieva is still not there with her serve and has served 13 aces to 33 double-faults. Double-faults are too easy points to give to Serena who has 40 aces to nine double-faults. I’m backing the player with more aces.
Pick! Serena Williams (-550) for five units

922 Dinara Safina (+310) vs. 923 Venus Williams (-425) 10 a.m EST
Head-to-Head: 1-2

Surprisingly, or not, defending champion Venus Williams will face Sabine Lisicki, oops, strike through please, I mean Dinara Safina. I won’t spend too much time venting about how annoyed I was the entire match as Lisicki gave the match to the fist pumping, caterwalling, head-case Safina. But whatever, somehow, and I fault Lisicki for this rather than credit her, Safina dug wherever it is lunatics dig, for the win and best the German in three sets.
Venus, tape up an down her left leg, destroyed Radwanska in her quarter-final match  6-1, 6-2 to make a Sister Slam that much closer to reality. I am sure a lot of fans are dreading another Williams final (especially since they’ll likely have to put up with another Ladies Doubles Championship for the sisters), but that doesn’t make it less likely.

I think it is a foregone conclusion that Venus wins this, but what will make this match fun for viewers and sports investors at home is predicting the set and game in which Safina loses it-you know the request smashed into the grass in anger, the frustrated hands on hips, pouty lips up to god, and if you miss the signs you can bet Mary Carillo will point it out to you. I’m going for the first set in the crucial eleventh game when it is 5-6 and somehow, someway, somewhere Venus wins the point to take the first set. Which I believe deserves a bit of the old fist pump, don’t you?

Pick! Venus Williams (-425) for five units

YTD
6-2, + 14.20 units

By Christopher G. Shepard

Day 9: Gentlemen’s Quarter-Finals

I don’t know if you have noticed, but there’s been more fist-pumping at Wimbledon than at a San Francisco bath-house in the 1970’s. Don’t get me wrong, I am not against being enthusiastic about a great cross-court winner, but when your opponent double-faults does it really need the added punctuation of the returner’s fist pump?
Of course the fist pump would feel lonely without the accompanying Larcher Di Brito like grunt and Heidi Pratt’s “O-face”. Whatever happened to acting like you’ve been there before? It is no wonder the Queen hasn’t been on site since 1977. But if Murray makes it to the finals mark my word we’ll see her in the Royal Box and you bet your ass she’ll be pumping her royal fist as well.
Fist pumping feeds on itself and the more one player does it the more the next player will do it and so forth. In today’s Gentlemen’s Quarter-finals we get to ease into the day with a pair of matches that may or may not contain excessive fist pumping. Roger Federer might be a full of himself at times but he is a classy guy on and off the court. We’ll get one perhaps two fist pumps and generally that will happen once he’s finished off another opponent at the end of the match. Karlovic is a 6’10 serving machine whose fist pump opportunities will be limited to his aces.

The second set of quarters promise far more fist pump potential. In fact the Roddick/Hewitt match features one of the world’s greatest fist pumpers-the 2002 Champion, Aussie Lleyton Hewitt off the day with two of the ATP’s best fist pumpers. In fact He’ll frequently drop into the two armed, double-fist pump avec maniac face; especially when he’s down a set and has broken back a break to get to 3-4 and serve to tie. Watch for it, it will happen-several times.  Not to be outdone Andy Roddick has never been one to allow a good fist pumping opportunity to get away so if you’re into fist pumping this could be the match of the day.
Now that I purged like a sixteen year-old suburban non-syringe professional I can turn my attention to what really matters; doubling my V-chips by investing across the pond in the Gentlemen’s Quarter-finals. I would be remiss if I did not point out that in yesterday’s Ladies Quarters all the favorites cashed.

Here’s who I like to cash today.
502 Lleyton Hewitt (+220) vs. 504 Andy Roddick (-300) 10 a.m.. EST
Head-to-Head:6-5
Out of the four matches today I think this one is the hardest to handicap. Do I really buy into the resurgent Hewitt and defy the almighty serve of Andy Roddick? It feels like old-school tennis or something when these two meet up. Surprisingly Hewitt, the 2002 Champion, holds a 6-5 head-to-head advantage, but it has been Roddick that has been doing better in recent years winning the last four consecutive meetings.  Roddick is 2-0 against Hewitt on grass and today will be Roddick’s fifth time playing in the quarter-finals at Wimbledon.
What makes this match more than interesting is that it pits a fabulous server (Roddick) against an excellent returner (Hewitt). The question is who will dictate the points when Hewitt serves? I am not sure, but I think the sentimental choice will be Hewitt tomorrow, and I think the crowd which always like a live dog, will be summarily on the Australian’s side.  Why I question Hewitt is that he beat an ailing Stepanek in the previous round. It didn’t and shouldn’t have gone five sets. It seemed as though Hewitt waited until he dropped the first two sets to come to life.
This brings up a point about Roddick’s style of play; fast, efficient, a lethal serve, and ending points quickly to Hewitt’s rambling style; likely to draw out his opponents for long baseline rallies where he can hammer the unwary. Hewitt’s emotion has carried him a lot farther than his body at times and these days tournament wins come harder and harder. Unfortunately for Hewitt he’s running into a buzz-saw named A-Rod.
Fist pump potential: Very High
Pick! Andy Roddick (-300) for two units

504 Andy Murray (-1000) vs. 503 Juan Carlos Ferrero (+600) 10 a.m. EST
Head-to-Head:1-0

No. 3 Murray had to overcome a first set deficit to Federer’s sparring partner Stanislas Wawrinka and now meets wild card entry and grizzled tour veteran Ferrero who has had a great Wimbledon up until this point. Ferrero is here courtesy of wins against the “Magician” Santoro, No.10 Gonzalez and No. 8 Simon. There is no doubt that Ferrero has been playing in much better form than he has in recent years but In fact it was just three weeks ago that tennis fans got a preview of today’s quarter-finals match between Murray and Ferrero. It was the semi-finals of the Queens Club three weeks ago and Murray won relatively easily 6-2, 6-4. I am not expecting much of a different result this time other than it will end in three sets rather than two. The sentimental journey ends for Ferrero as Murray has proven already that he has way to many weapons to use even if he does drop a set or two.

Fist pump potential: Moderate/high for Murray and all of England

Pick! Andy Murray (-1000) for two units

506 Tommy Haas (+220) vs. Novak Djokovic (-300) 8:15 am. EST

Head-to-Head: 1-2
Nine years separates the oldest remaining player, No. 24, Tommy Haas, and the youngest remaining player, No. 4, Novak Djokovic. However, it is the older player who seems to be on a hot streak. Haas is coming into this match winning 12 of his last 13 matches and defeated two quality opponents in Cilic and Andreev to set up this match against the 2008 Australian Open Champion.
While the Djoker holds a 2-1 advantage head-to-head, Haas’ win came at Halle on grass earlier in June. What this means for today’s match is uncertain. However, Haas has been serve-and-volleying really well and will have to continue to do so against Djokovic who has many ways of beating you.  Djokovic made it to the semi-finals in 2007 and then lost to Nadal and last year got knocked out in the second round by Marat Safin (another great fist pumper).  For Haas this is as deep as he’s ever been in his ten Wimbledon’s. I think Haas aggressively serves-and-volley’s his was to another win.
Fist pump potential: Moderate

Pick! Tommy Haas (+220) for two units

508 Ivo Karlovic (+600) vs. 509 Roger Federer (-1000) 08:15 a.m. EST

Head-to-Head: 8-1

No. 22 Ivo Karlovic takes on No. 2 Roger Federer for a rematch of their Round of 16 in Wimbledon match in 2004. Federer won in straight sets 6-3, 7-6. 7-6 and by now not a lot has changed in five years as Federer has managed to beat Karlovic on every surface, but did lose to Karlovic last year at Cincinnati-but that was best of three rather than best of five sets.
Coming into his match with Federer, Karlovic has yet to be challenged on his service game. And this match could turn out to be a server’s slugfest. Consider this; when Karlovic beat Federer in Cincinnati he didn’t break Federer’s serve once. Federer was also at a career low point while many transitions were taking place in his home life. However Federer has always been an excellent counter-puncher and he’ll need to be on his game as Karlovic’s cannon will keep pounding Federer’s backhand hoping to find a weakness. Keep in mind Karlovic is 6’10 and he casts a long shadow on across the baseline so it is no wonder that he leads all players in aces at Wimbledon. Something tells me that Federer will be up to the task if returned those
As good a server Karlovic is he’s not a great returner-certainly not nearly as good as Federer which could post a problem during crucial tie-breaker points. And when these two players get together you can bet there will be tie-breaks. In Federer-Karlovic’s nine matches there have been a total of 12 tie breaks in 22 sets. The beauty with Federer is that he can adjust his game to any opponent.. All Federer needs it to get one or two breaks and he’ll win by just enough to move on to the semi-finals. What it comes down to is that Karlovic has one HUGE weapon while Federer has a whole arsenal.

Fist pump potential: light

Pick! Roger Federer (-1000) for three units

2009 Wimbledon YTD

2-2, +2.80 units

By Robert Ferringo

Here are the odds to win the 2009-10 NBA Title prior to the July 1 opening of Free Agency. I think it will be useful to look back at this at the end of the summer and see how the signings have altered the public perception:

Los Angeles Lakers       2-1
Cleveland Cavaliers     2-1
Orlando Magic     6-1
Boston Celtics     6-1
Denver Nuggets     12-1
San Antonio Spurs     12-1
Houston Rockets     15-1
Utah Jazz     20-1
Portland Blazers     20-1
New Orleans Hornets     40-1
Dallas Mavericks     40-1
Detroit Pistons     50-1
Phoenix Suns     50-1
Atlanta Hawks     50-1
Chicago Bulls     50-1
Miami Heat     50-1
Philadelphia 76ers     60-1
Washington Wizards     100-1
Toronto Raptors     100-1
Milwaukee Bucks     100-1
Sacramento Kings     100-1
Charlotte BobCats     100-1
Memphis Grizzlies     100-1
Indiana Pacers     100-1
New Jersey Nets     100-1
New York Knicks     100-1
Golden State Warriors     100-1
Los Angeles Clippers     100-1
Oklahoma City Thunder     100-1
Minnesota T-Wolves     100-1

By Christopher G. Shepard

Day 8: Ladies Quarter-Finals

Answer: Dinara Safina
Question: “Who won the first match at Wimbledon’s Centre Court with the roof closed?

While Safina goes down in history for something other than winning Wimbledon, it was Andy Murray who delighted Brits the most by also going into the record books as winning in the latest match (10:30 p.m.) against Stanislas Wawrinka thanks to the translucent roof’s lights-a first in Wimbledon’s storied history. Perhaps somewhere lost in the overwhelming history of the moment was the fact that by the time they finished closing the roof in the Safina-Mauresmo match it had stopped raining.
Yesterday it was all about the roof and the Gentlemen with Murray, Federer, Roddick, Karlovic, Hewitt, Ferrero, Djokovic, and Haas making it through to the quarter-finals. Today it is all about increasing V-chips by investing in the ladies’ quarter-finals matches at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Keep in mind, however, if you want to back the favorites today you’ll pay through the nose for the privilege

902 Dinara Safina (-260) vs. 903 Sabine Lisicki (+200) 8 a.m. EST
Head-to-Head: 0-1

This is the first year in seven attempts that the Russian head-case Safina has made it this deep into the fortnight. Despite doing her best to hand yesterday’s match to former Champion Amelie Mauresmo; who sports the tour’s most prominent under-bite. After jumping ahead 3-0 in the first set she allowed Mauresmo to equalize to 3-3 and ultimately lost the first set 6-4 to the No. 13 seed. However, it didn’t take Safina long to go up 4-1 in the second set and won it 6-3. Safina’s weakness and her strength as a tennis player were apparent in the third set. Safina was in a 3-0 hole but somehow managed to battle back and win the next four games ultimately winning the set 6-4.

Germany’s Lisicki has never been this deep into the draw at Wimbledon and meets the WTA No.1 player by virtue of beating French Open Champion Svetlana Kuznetsova in the third round and then yesterday the No. 9 seed Denmark’s Caroline Wozniacki in convincing fashion. Lisicki’s had a great sophomore run at Wimbledon and today’s match should really show how good the 19-year-old is. Would it be a huge upset if Safina lost? Perhaps on paper, but with Safina you never know what you will get. One thing is certain that if Safina gets down to Lisicki the way she did to Mauresmo she’ll have a much harder time of it. Perhaps most impressive about Lisicki’s game is that she has a mammoth server. Don’t let the 8 aces against Wozniacki fool you, the serves that weren’t aces were all the Woz could handle.

The way Lisciki has represented herself this fortnight shows that she is not intimidated by the atmosphere, the pressure and the high seeds she has faced. Conversely Safina has shown some shakiness from her first round on, but has managed to battle for wins that she should have won easily. For Lisciki to win she’ll have to put away points quickly on her serve and get inside Safina’s head early. Lisciki beat Safina in their only meeting in the second round of the 2008 Australian Open. There it was the big serve that won the first set tie-break for Lisciki and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen once again today.

Pick! Lisicki +200 for one unit.

904 Venus Williams (-900) vs. 905 Agnieszka Radwanska (+550) 8 a.m. EST
Head-to-Head: 4-0

My pick to win the Ladies Championship over at Docsports.com was the 11/4 favorite Venus Williams and so far in her quest for her third consecutive Ladies Championship and sixth overall the elder Williams has not disappointed. Venus has yet to drop a set and has only lost a total of 15 games (26 games if you include her three doubles matches with sister Serena as her partner). Venus’ life was made that much easier when her fourth round opponent Ana Ivanovic had to withdraw due to a groin injury (I wouldn’t mind being the trainer forced to message that injury) at 0-1 in the second set after losing the first set 6-1. A lot has been made of Venus suddenly appearing on the court with a huge beige bandage on her knee but it hasn’t seemed to hold her back against lesser competition. Looking at her draw Venus has not really played anyone before yesterday.

Venus gets another break today when she faces Radwanska. Three out of four times Venus has beaten Radwanska in straight sets and in Miami earlier this year Radwanska managed to win the first set 6-4 but then lost the next two sets 6-1, 6-4.  I have a hard time seeing Radwanska who did just enough yesterday to beat Oudin in straight sets. However, the No. 11 seed will find that Venus is not just a 17-year-old phenom from Georgia.

Pick! Venus Williams (-900) two units

906 Francesca Schiavone (+240) vs. 907 Elena Dementieva (-320) 9:30 a.m. EST
Head-to-head: 4-4

Another player who has not dropped a set this fortnight, but has virtually escaped notice for her quietly dominating play is the Russian Dementieva; who not only looks great in a classic white tennis dress/skirt, but moves like a cat across the court. Dementieva is not your classic serve-and-volley player which generally typifies and what wins titles at Wimbledon, but a staunch baseliner who slugging it out and use her excellent lateral movement to crush her opponents. Indeed, Dementieva has played so well in this year’s Grass Slam that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her in the finals. But first she’ll have to dispatch crafty Schiavone.

Schiavone has never made it past the third round in any Grand Slam and should be wary of an “oh shit” moment. The pressure will be something Schiavone will need to overcome as much as Dementieva’s improved serves. Schiavone and Dementieva have never played against each other on grass, but in their four matches since 2005, they have won two game a piece and each one of their matches has gone the distance so I would expect today’s match to follow suit.  Ultimately, Dementieva has more weapons and will be the better player on the court tomorrow. Dementieva might not have as easy a time of it as she did in yesterday’s 6-1, 6-3 win over Elena Vesnina which only took up 1:09 of viewer’s time, but we’ll see Dementieva in the semi’s.

Pick! Elena Dementieva -320 for three units

908 Victoria Azarenka (+250) vs. 909 Serena Williams (-330) 9:30 a.m. EST
Head-to-Head: 1-2

This match should come with a grunting alert as two of the tour’s bigger grunters take Centre Court. Note to self: turn off volume.

It only took Serena 56 minutes to destroy Daniela Hantuchova 6-3, 6-1, yesterday and the younger Williams sister looks like she is locked in to win her third Wimbledon title. But first she’ll need to get by the up-and-comer Belarus’s Azarenka. I think this could be the best quarter-finals match of the day and not just because I love watching Serena bound across the grass in a two size’s too small outfit as the sweat pours down between her mammoth mammalians.

But like her sister, Venus, Serena, is also wearing two thick new accessories around her ankles; tape and lots of it. Whether this is showmanship or really weak ankles is anyone’s guess as Serena can be one of the tour’s biggest drama queens. But here’s the deal, for some reason, it seems that of all the opponents she could have played, one of Serena’s least favorites is Azarenka.

At this year’s Australian Open Azarenka had taken a set from Serena 6-3 and was down 4-2, but looked dominant, when she had to retire. Williams went on to win the Australian Open but Azarenka could only wonder what could have been. Then later on this year in Miami Azarenka defeated Serena relatively easily 6-3, 6-1. Granted these two have never met on grass, but if Serena is going to get knocked out it will be by Azarenka. I see this match going the distance and won’t be too shocked if I turn on the HD and see Azarenka serving for the match.

Pick! Azarenka +250 for one unit

By Robert Ferringo

Looks like the money has taken their position on Roy Halladay’s return for Toronto tonight. The books opened up Doc as a -200 favorite tonight against Tampa Bay but the number has plunged down to around -155 and -150 at most online books, indicating heavy action on the Rays.

I would have to say that I disagree with this movement. Halladay is coming back from a strained groin. To me that’s meaningful because it’s not as if he went on the 15-day DL because of any arm issue. When pitchers make their return from a stint on the disabled list because of problems with their shoulder, elbow, bicep or anything else related to their pitching arm then I’m always wary as they try to regain their “feel”. But if a pitcher – especially a horse like Halladay – has an issue with a groin or an ab or a quad then I operate under the impression that they are going to regain their form rather quickly.

In most instances the main issue, if it’s non-arm related, is just some rust after time off. Particularly if you have a “feel” pitcher like the proverbial soft-tossing lefty. But not with Halladay. He’s made 30 starts in his career with six or more days of rest. Halladay is 18-8 with a 3.40 ERA in those instances. Prior to his injury Halladay had thrown by far the most innings in the Majors (103) and he had tossed back-to-back complete games in his two starts before the June 12 start in which he left with the sore groin.

The only thing that made me balk at this game was that Halladay really hasn’t been that great against the Rays in his career. He is just 11-7 in 25 career starts against the Rays and just 3-4 against them in SkyDome. I think we’re in for a low-scoring game, as I think that Halladay will be sharp and I think that the inconsistent, right-hand dominant Jays lineup will struggle a bit with large Tampa righty Jeff Niemann. But in the end this one won’t be decided by Halladay’s groin.

By Robert Ferringo

Here is a list of foreign-born players that did not play college basketball and were drafted in the first round of the NBA Draft. They are listed in the order they were drafted (Pick) and then I have listed the player, the team that picked them, and then their career NBA averages for points, rebounds and assists per game:

PICK    PLAYER    TEAM    PPG    RPG    APG
2008
6    Danilo Gallinari    New York Knicks    6.1    2    0.5
20    Alexis Ajinca    Charlotte Bobcats    2.3    1    0.1
24    Serge Ibaka    Seattle SuperSonics    0    0    0

2007
6    Yi Jianlian    Milwaukee Bucks    8.6    5.3    0.9
18    Marco Belinelli    Golden State Warriors    6.2    1.1    1.4
24    Rudy Fernandez    Phoenix Suns    10.4    2.7    2
28    Tiago Splitter    San Antonio Spurs    0    0    0
30    Petteri Koponen    Philadelphia 76ers    0    0    0

2006
1    Andrea Bargnani    Toronto Raptors    12.4    4.3    1.1
10    Mouhamed Sene    Seattle SuperSonics    2.2    1.6    0
13    Thabo Sefolosha    Philadelphia 76ers    5.4    3.2    1.5
18    Oleksiy Pecherov    Washington Wizards    3.6    2.1    0.1
27    Sergio Rodriguez    Phoenix Suns        3.6    1.3

2005
11    Fran Vazquez    Orlando Magic    0    0    0
12    Yaroslav Korolev    Los Angeles Clippers    1.1    0.5    0.4
25    Johan Petro    Seattle SuperSonics    5.4    4.3    0.4
27    Linas Kleiza    Portland Trail Blazers    8.3    3.5    0.7
28    Ian Mahinmi    San Antonio Spurs    3.5    0.8    0.2

2004
11    Andris Biedrins    Golden State Warriors    8.4    8.2    1
21    Pavel Podkolzin    Utah Jazz    0.7    1.5    0
22    Viktor Khryapa    New Jersey Nets    4.5    3.4    1
23    Sergei Monia    Portland Trail Blazers    3    2    0.7
27    Sasha Vujacic    Los Angeles Lakers    5.3    1.8    1.3

2003
2    Darko Milicic    Detroit Pistons    5.5    4    0.7
11    Mickael Pietrus    Golden State Warriors    8.7    3.3    0.9
17    Zarko Cabarkapa    Phoenix Suns    4.3    2.1    0.6
19    Aleksandar Pavlovic    Utah Jazz    5.8    1.9    1
22    Zoran Planinic    New Jersey Nets    3.8    1.3    1.1
26    Ndudi Ebi    Minnesota Timberwolves    2.1    1    0.2

2002
1    Yao Ming    Houston Rockets    19.1    9.3    1.6
5    Nikoloz Tskitishvili    Denver Nuggets    2.9    1.8    0.7
7    Nene Hilario    Denver Nuggets    11.5    6.6    1.6
15    Bostjan Nachbar    Houston Rockets    7.1    2.6    0.9
16    Jiri Welsch    Golden State Warriors    6.1    2.4    1.5
24    Nenad Krstic    New Jersey Nets    11    5.7    1.0

By Robert Ferringo

When in doubt, bet the ‘under’. And I mean bet THEM ALL ‘under’.

Had you bet $100 on the ‘under’ on every total from Friday, May 22 through Monday, June 15 you would have banked a cool $5,200, factoring in 10 percent juice for each play. Further, since May 22 there have only been seven of 25 days in which if you had blindly bet the ‘under’ on every MLB game you would have lost money.

Also, over that 25-day stretch there has not been back-to-back profitable ‘over’ days once.

I have recently detailed how Major League teams simply cannot score right now. In June the MLB average is just 8.2 runs scored per game, down around a run-and-a-half from the totals through the first six-plus weeks of the season. The bottom line is that the ‘under’ is paying right now like a drunk at a strip club. It’s long past the time when you should be questioning this method of betting. You should simply be playing every game ‘under’ on every day and collecting that second paycheck.

Here is a day-by-day breakdown, excluding pushes, of how MLB teams have fared against the total:

MLB Teams Vs. The Total:

May 22 - 3-12
May 23 - 4-11
May 24 - 7-8
May 25 - 10-5*
May 26 - 3-12
May 27 - 7-7*
May 28 - 0-5
May 29 - 2-14
May 30 - 9-6*
May 31 - 6-9
June 1 – 2-6
June 2 - 8-7*
June 3 - 5-6
June 4 - 5-8
June 5 - 5-9
June 6 - 5-9
June 7 - 8-7*
June 8 - 2-7
June 9 - 6-8
June 10 - 6-7
June 11 - 3-10
June 12 - 6-7
June 13 - 8-6*
June 14 - 7-8
June 15 - 2-0*
May 22-31 – 51-89 (36.4 percent)
June 1-15 – 78-105 (42.6 percent)
Total since May 22 – 129-194 (39.9 percent)

By Robert Ferringo

T.O. Whenham recently recently wrote a story about factoring in bullpens to your Major League Baseball handicapping. It’s great advice and you can read the article here.

I thought I’d supplement that with a list of the 10 best and 10 worst bullpens in the MLB in terms of bullpen ERA, save percentage and opponent’s batting average. While I was looking this up something striking hit me: bullpen ERA is really a poor indicator of bullpen strength in terms of securing your wager. I mean, it’s obviously a key stat in weighing the merits and reliability of a bullpen. However, there was virtually zero correlation between ERA and blown saves. And the bottom line is that I don’t care how many runs a bullpen gives up – as long as they don’t lose the game and lose my wager!

Anyway, here are the 10 best and 10 worst teams in terms of relievers’ ERA, team save percentage, and relievers’ batting average against:

RELIEVERS’ ERA
10 Best:
Boston (3.01)
N.Y. Mets (3.14)
Milwaukee (3.127)
Seattle (3.28)
L.A. Dodgers (3.31)
Cincinnati (3.42)
Philadelphia (3.55)
San Francisco (3.56)
Tampa Bay (3.69)
Chicago White Sox (3.92)

10 Worst:
L.A. Angels (5.98)
Washington (5.59)
Colorado (4.88)
Cleveland (4.84)
Arizona (4.83)
Texas (4.76)
N.Y. Yankees (4.75)
Baltimore (4.59)
Detroit (4.49)
Kansas City (4.37)

TEAM SAVE PERCENTAGE
10 Best:
Texas (86)
Cincinnati (80)
St. Lois (75)
Colorado (71)
Pittsburgh (71)
Baltimore (68)
Oakland (68)
Chicago White Sox (68)
Minnesota (68)

10 Worst:
Washington (38)
Kansas City (47)
Houston 952)
Cleveland (52)
Toronto (52)
Florida (58)
L.A. Dodgers (61)
Chicago Cubs (61)
Atlanta (62)
Detroit (62)

RELIEVERS’ BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST
10 Best:
Milwaukee (.211)
St. Louis (.226)
L.A. Dodgers (.231)
Tampa Bay (.231)
Chicago Cubs (.233)
Boston (.234)
Philadelphia (.235)
Cincinnati (.236)
N.Y. Mets (.241)
Toronto (.242)

10 Worst:
L.A. Angels (.294)
Colorado (.291)
Washington (.282)
Arizona (.273)
Atlanta (.270)
Texas (.269)
Houston (.266)
San Diego (.265)
Baltimore (.265)
Chicago White Sox (.264)

Contributed By Indian Cowboy

I remember Kevin Millwood when he came up through the Braves organization.  As you know, from my future bets to the fact that I follow the American League closely in general, I keep a close eye on the Texas Rangers.  Heck, 30 percent of my wagers this year in some form or manner have to do with the Rangers. When following Millwood, one thing is obvious this year: he has really come into his own.  Granted, the Rangers have considered him their ace for quite some time now, but this year he has really taken the mantle.

The Gastonia, North Carolina native is just 6-4, but it is his ERA that is striking.  Millwood has a 2.72 ERA and he has been an ‘Under’ champ this year.  Of late, he is 8-2 to the ‘Under’ as many of the Rangers pitchers have been dipping under the posted total.  Yes, this offense is still 8th in runs in the league at about five runs per game and 2nd in home runs, but it is their upstart pitchers that have been the surprise this year.

Here is what Millwood has done of late:

He has given up 0 runs in the last 14.2 innings (vs. Toronto and at Boston)
He has a 2.72 era overall.

Here is his ERA breakdown per year in the Majors:

2009: Rangers: 2.72 ERA (through 13 games started)
2008: Rangers: 5.07 ERA (29 games started)
2007: Rangers: 5.16 ERA (31 games started)
2006: Rangers: 4.52 ERA (34 games started)
2005: Indians: 2.86 ERA (30 games started)
2004: Phillies: 4.85 ERA (25 games started)
2003: Phillies: 4.01 ERA (35 games started)
2002: Braves: 3.24 ERA (34 games started)
2001: Braves: 4.31 ERA (21 games started)
2000: Braves: 4.66 ERA (35 games started)
1999: Braves: 2.68 ERA (33 games started)

The 34-year-old and now 11-year veteran has always been a workhorse as he has started at least 30 games in seven seasons and at least 21 games his entire career in the majors.  But, it seems that Millwood is having his best season yet in his 11th season in the majors.  Got to give props to the Bubba as he has always been a stud when it comes to having the stamina to pitch for the entire season, but it seems he has now been able to put all the pieces together to be as effective as he has ever been.  Plus, he has a solid offense that is backing him up as well as the Rangers are on top of the division and chase a potential AL crown this fall.

By Robert Ferringo

I am posting a story on The Mothership about scoring declines in the last decade and how they specifically (and by “specifically” I mean may or may not) relate to the end of the Steroid Era in Major League Baseball. Some people out there enjoy a good read, so I recommend giving the story a glance. Yet others are “numbers junkies” that like the raw data. This post is for them.

Here are some of the stats that I used to put that story together:

Here are the average runs per game, by team, over the last 10 years, with the average total runs per team in parentheses:

2009 – AL: 4.86 (282),  NL: 4.50 (261)
2008 – AL: 4.78 (775),  NL: 4.53 (734)
2007 – AL: 4.90 (794),  NL: 4.71 (763)
2006 – AL: 4.96 (804),  NL: 4.76 (771)
2005 – AL: 4.76 (771),  NL: 4.45 (721)
2004 – AL: 5.01 (811),  NL: 4.64 (751)
2003 – AL: 4.86 (788),  NL: 4.61 (747)
2002 – AL: 4.80 (778),  NL: 4.44 (720)
2001 – AL: 4.85 (787),  NL: 4.70 (762)
2000 – AL: 5.29 (857),  NL: 5.00 (811)
1999 – MLB: 5.09

Here is a list of the top 10 scoring seasons, in terms of runs per game per team, in MLB history, as found on Yahoo Answers:

1930: 5.549
1936: 5.188
1929: 5.186
2000: 5.140
1925: 5.129
1999: 5.085
1996: 5.036
1901: 4.986
1994: 4.923
1932: 4.913

Here is a breakdown of scoring by month so far this season in Major League Baseball:

April Scoring:
AL: 5.0 (22 games and 110 runs)
NL: 4.7 (21 games and 99 runs)
MLB: 4.73

May Scoring:
AL: 4.8 (139 runs in 29 games)
NL: 4.6 (129 runs in 28 games)
MLB: 4.62

June Scoring:
AL: 4.2 (50 runs in 12 games)
NL: 4.0 (48 runs in 12 games)
MLB: 4.08

Last 7 Days:
AL: 4.1 (7 games and 29)
NL: 4.3 (6 games and 26)
MLB: 4.5 runs

And from our friends at The Baseball Cube here is a breakdown of combined runs per game from each season dating back to 1957:

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