BREAKING NEWS:

Several news outlets are reporting that North Carolina will be without 15 players due to suspension or other measures when they face LSU this Saturday. Marvin Austen, Robert Quinn, Michael McAdoo, Kendric Burney, Charles Brown and Greg Little were all suspended. Shaun Draughn, Ryan Houston, Brian Gupton, Norris Searcy, Jon Smith, Linwan Euwell, Quan Sturdivant, Bruce Carter and Deunta Williams are being held out. These are key players and all of this severely hinders North Carolina’s chances to get a win in this game with LSU. The line has adjusted to this news and the new odds on this game are LSU -7.5 with a total of 43.5.

North Carolina really, in my opinion, has no chance to win this game against LSU. I don’t know about the number. I don’t think LSU is THAT good, but I know that those are a ton of key people on the Tar Heels team that are out. And that includes a stunning NINE STARTERS from their defense. So yeah, they are beat.

Their offense had a ton of problems scoring points last year, and without their best receiver and two best running backs I’m going to say that they will be a mess on that side of the ball all night. Plus you have to factor in just the shock/distraction factor in the locker room

All-in-all, this is just kind of vintage Butch Davis, and it’s a shame that a team that was set up nicely for a Top 10 run and was a dark horse national title contender is now going to be hung out to dry and is going to see their season shot before it gets a chance to begin.

And the biggest beneficiary of all of this: Miami.

Below is an article that was on the CNN website that I revised and added my own spin to this article. This is all fun and games and I don’t mean to poke fun of any of these professions. If you want to read the real article click here for the link.

But in the meantime, here is my “revision”:

Last year was the safest year in the American workplace, but heights, weather, half-points, missed field goals and heavy equipment still put many people at risk. Which 11 jobs are the worst?

The American workplace is safer than ever despite some recent job-related disasters, such as the West Virginia coal-mining explosion and the Gulf oilrig catastrophe. It could be safer because of the extra cash Doc’s Sports Handicapper Vegas Sports Informer has made to the US public on MLB Baseball, WNBA, and World Cup soccer.

Only 4,340 people died on the job last year, down 16.8% from 2008, according to new data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also said that deaths due to football 1⁄2 point hook deaths have also declined.

Here’s a look at some of the most dangerous jobs and how workers keep themselves safe.

America’s Most Dangerous Jobs

Fisherman
Fatality Rate: 200 per 100,000
Median Wages: $23,600

Those who fish the waters in cold-weather states hold the most perilous job in the U.S. Freezing water and icy boat decks can lead to horrific accidents, and storms can swamp small fishing vessels, sometimes claiming entire crews.

Compounding the danger is catch rules: By limiting fishing seasons, fisheries management creates a race to fish, according to the Environmental Defense Fund.

That forces fishermen out in dangerous weather and keeps exhausted crews on the water. In Alaska, the season for halibut and crab has been, at times, reduced to just three days.

Even warm-water fishers face hazards. Wayne Magwood has shrimped the waters off South Carolina for 40 years and says the biggest danger is heavy machinery, such as the power winches and cables that haul nets and other equipment.

“My dad taught me to keep my shirt tucked in,” says Magwood. “Your clothes can get tangled up and you can get pulled overboard. One guy broke his neck recently.”

Magwood also lost a friend when the crewman was answering nature’s call and a sudden roll pitched him into the water.

Doc’s Sports handicapper Vegas Sports Informer said, “Being a fisherman has to be the most Dangerous Job in the world not only do you have to deal with weather but no TV or computer to watch or gamble on football”.

Logger
Fatality Rate: 61.8 per 100,000
Median Wages: $34,440

Logging takes an annual toll like few other occupations. The biggest hazard, according to Roger Smith of RL Logging in Olympia, Wash., comes from logging mountain slopes.

“You’re working steep terrain with 70-degree, 80-degree grades with rocks and sliding logs,” he says.

About half the time, he’s taking down 60- to 70-year-old trees with trunk diameters of 30 inches or more. If not felled correctly, these can go crashing down slopes, rolling over anyone in their paths.

“A lot of the time, what gets cutters is if they don’t see something,” Smith says. “Like trees growing together or snags.”

The old forest canopies often have those snags, which are big dead branches that break off and can fall erratically when the tree comes down. Loggers call them “widow makers.”

Even after the trees are cut, the job of loading them can be tough.
“Somebody just got killed here last Thursday,” he says. “He was running a harvester and one of the teeth of the chain broke off and went right through the bulletproof glass window of his cab.”

“Logger, I thought we were talking about bloggers,” says Vegas Sports Informer. “I hate sports bloggers that think they know everything about sports gambling.”

Airplane Pilots
Fatality Rate: 57.1 per 100,000
Median Wages: $106,240

“I give all credits to airplane pilots because without them I couldn’t go to over 100-200 free professional sports games around the world yearly,” says Vegas Sports Informer.

When former Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens died in a small plane accident recently, it underscored the hazards Alaskan bush pilots face.
That crash followed the script of many Alaskan accidents, where the most common cause of fatalities is “flying into terrain, under speed,” according to the BLS.

Heidi Ruess, an Anchorage-based bush pilot with 40 years experience, says, “You can’t compare Alaskan flying with the rest of the country.”

Volatile Alaskan weather and vertical topography can cause pilots to lose visibility in fog and fly into steep mountainsides.

She used to take tourists, hunters and fishermen out to remote locations until she flipped her Cessna 185. She had only three passengers — the plane can take five — but she was still over-loaded because, in addition to gear, they had packed up four or five caribou.

“We don’t have roads [in Alaska] and you can’t drive in to pick up the gear and the game,” she says.

She also flipped a float plane a few years before as she landed to pick up duck hunters. She tried to use mud to brake but it was frozen and the plane hit a big ditch and sent her tumbling.

After that, she concentrated on teaching. She cautions her students that the two biggest reasons for flying accidents are physical conditions, which pilots can rarely do much about, and judgment, which they can.

Farmers and Ranchers
Fatality Rate: 35.8 per 100,000
Median Wages: $32,350

Both farmers and ranchers deal with many hazardous conditions in their workplace. In many cases, accidents result when workers get fatigued or hurry to complete a job. They are rushing because they know they have to hurry up and get their sports bets in before the numbers move. This is one of the main reasons why Farmers and Ranchers have tons of injuries.

“When you’re tired, you may take shortcuts you shouldn’t,” says John Gilbert, who, along with his four brothers and eldest son, runs a big dairy and pork farm near Iowa Falls, Iowa. “Raising and harvested crops, you have short windows to get things done in the spring and fall. That leads to a lot of rushing around.”

Many agricultural workers die one of three ways: being pinned in overturned tractors, truck collisions and animal incidents.

One of the biggest hazards for farmers around Gilbert’s home ground is moving around augers that transfer grain from trucks or bins to silos.

“They’re tall enough to get tangled in overhead power lines,” says Gilbert. “Everybody knows about the hazard and is cautioned about it, but accidents happen anyway.”

Almost as dangerous is taking to the roads on slow moving tractors or combines. Drivers inexperienced in rural travel may confuse the hazard lights and directional signals and think the farmer is turning left instead of right. That leads to farmers sometimes turning directly into the path of an oncoming car or truck.

Gilbert himself has been cautious, and lucky, never sustaining a disabling injury. And he does not consider farming a job: “It’s a way of life,” he says.

Roofers
Fatality Rate: 34.7 per 100,000
Median Wages: $33,970

Height increases danger — and roofing is an occupation where elevation is part of the job description.

Kevin Coleman has been roofing safely for 24 years, since age 18. He works commercial buildings with mostly flat roofs, so the possibility of falling is lower. Although he has worked as high as a 70-story building in downtown Chicago.

One particular hazard is hot tar. The roofers work with big buckets of the stuff heated to as much as 525 degrees.

“I got hurt only once,” says Coleman. “A guy’s shirt with a lighter in the pocket fell into the tar and exploded. My face was covered.” He escaped with only a few scars.

Safety has increased for roofers.

“When I started, it was ‘Get up on the roof and go,’” he says. “Now you take OSHA safety courses and there’s more safety equipment, too.”

Roofers can fall even off flat roofs with no wall height, so one innovation was to set up a line of flags, six feet from the roof’s edge, like an outfield warning track.

There’s also more protection, such as restraints and nets, to catch workers when they do fall. But the prime reason for a steady drop-off of injuries and fatalities is better training, according to Coleman.

“Roofers get no respect in my eyes,” says professional football handicapper Robert Ferringo (ed. Note: Yeah, I didn’t say any of this. But VSI is on a roll so we’ll go with it!) Ferringo also says, :as long as a roofer keeps me cool in the summer and warm in the winter I’m happy because I need to be comfortable when I’m handicapping sports in my office.”

Ironworkers
Fatality Rate: 30.3 per 100,000
Median Wages: $44,500

The men and women who build the skyscrapers and bridges of modern America have always been held in awe by the general public.

Images of them walking a four-inch steel beam hanging 500-feet above the street or sliding down an I-beam illustrate the conditions that would have lesser workers curling into a fetal position and crying for their mommies.

Steve Rank helped build downtown Houston in the 1980s and now works to improve ironworker safety via negotiated rule making with OSHA.

One thing that has changed is the number of anchor bolts set in concrete has doubled. These bolts help hold beams steady as they go up. In the past, many bolts failed.

“The structure would fall like a house of cards,” Rank says.
Site preparation is also a major issue. “Before, it would look like a scud missile hit, everything underwater in mud,” Rank explains.

“We’d be offloading steel and the truck wheels would sink, shifting the beams and crushing people.”

Rank is still negotiating with OSHA to get better rules for reinforced-concrete buildings. These can be 20-story high constructions of poured concrete with steel rebar embedded in them.

Lax regulations governing them have contributed to more than 100 ironworker fatalities over the past few years, according to Rank.

“We want to do the same thing for reinforced concrete we did with structural steel to make the job site safer,” he says.

Sanitation Worker
Fatality Rate: 25.2 per 100,000
Median Wages: $32,070

Martin Luther King was assassinated in Memphis Tenn., when he came to support black sanitation workers who were striking against unequal treatment.

Ironically, 40 years later, that conflict continues to have an impact on the health and safety of Memphis sanitation workers.
According to Warren Cole, the president of the union local, black workers were frozen out of the city pension plan years ago, leaving them only social security. Many have had to keep working at this demanding job much longer because they can’t afford to retire.

“We lost one of our workers last week,” said Cole. “Emmite Johnson had finished running his route. Memphis has been averaging about 100 degrees with high humidity, and he fell waiting for a bus. He was 70 years old.”

Summer may be tough on sanitation workers, but they also endure hazardous wastes all year long. Cole said a new peril is from portable meth labs, which are set up in vans or automobiles.

Explosive bi-products are discarded in garbage bins or alongside roads, a lethal danger to sanitation workers. There’s also the heavy equipment, like compactors, that can grab and crush workers if they’re not careful.

“I feel sorry for the people who have these jobs in the summer,” says Vegas Sports Informer. “Through out my travels in the summer in different ballparks I see tons of these workers and they bust theirs butts off day and night.”

Industrial Machinist
Fatality Rate: 18.5 per 100,000
Median Wages: $39,600

One of the biggest hazards of working with industrial machinery is handling the heavy weights. Machines can buck or shift, easily crushing a fragile human being.

Machinery in use in unforgiving. Loose clothing or long hair can be caught by chains or gears and mangle workers before the equipment can be brought to a stop.

“I guess I can’t wear my Chicago Cubs jersey if I had this job,” says Vegas Sports Informer.

Fortunately, better safety equipment and more comprehensive training have made working with machinery safer, according to David Merrifield, a Missouri-based safety consultant.

“There are better standards for safety and training,” he says. “A well-trained operator can avoid accidents and make the accidents that do happen less severe.”

Truckers and Drivers/Sales Workers
Fatality Rate: 18.3 per 100,000
Median Wages: $37,730

Mark Sutherland is a long-haul trucker with a track record of 2 million miles without an accident. But not all drivers can make that boast.

More truckers and sales deliverymen die on the job than any of the other top 10 occupations due to a moderately high fatality rate and a large number of workers.

Vigilance is vital but that can be hard to maintain, especially with truckers under pressure to produce. Government deregulation, according to Sutherland, has increased competition and squeezed profit margins. Some drivers and companies cut corners.

“They do what it takes,” says Sutherland, “and some of the terrible accidents you see are the result.”

For truckers pushing the limits, speeding and driving too long without proper rest take a toll. Things happen quickly when a big rig is rolling down the road at 75 miles per hour and the driver’s attention has wandered after 10 hours with only a short break or two.

“You have to constantly pay attention,” says Sutherland. “You can’t have enough eyes. You have to adjust to conditions.”

His pet peeve is the drivers who come to a dead stop at construction zones for no reason. That, fog, ice and snow are the most hazardous physical conditions that truckers face.

Construction Laborer
Fatality Rate: 18.3 per 100,000
Median Wages: $29,150

Building sites contain many of the hazardous conditions present in many of the most dangerous jobs. Workers are outdoors in all sorts of weather conditions, often at great heights and exposed to heavy materials and machinery.

A laborer was killed at McCarren Airport in Las Vegas early in 2009 when an earth-moving shovel ran over him. Later in the year, a Michigan laborer died when a diesel tank exploded. In New Jersey a worker was killed after his clothing entangled in a rotating machine drilling pipe.

Safety has sometimes been an afterthought on some construction jobs, but government regulations and heightened awareness by companies and the workers themselves have helped to steadily pare down casualties.

Professional Football Handicapper
Fatality Rate: 9.3 per 100,000
Median Wages: N/A

Most people don’t think this job is stressful or just don’t believe the hazardous this occupation has on the physical or mental part of the human body. Imagine winning or losing a $5,000 play on a miss field goal or a fumble on the goal line because of snowy weather.

Anytime you see a football gambler lose by a 1⁄2 point you can guarantee that someone is thinking about drinking themselves to death or physically doing it. It is sad to say but people gamble on what they don’t have compared to what they have.

Safety has to be patience in this line of work. You need a strong stomach, understanding wife, and patience to be a successful football handicapper. Understand that you will lose at times and bad beats will come but patience and respectful money management will get you threw the tough times.

Every season the Big East enters the start of college football as the most underrated conference in the country. Unfortunately, this might be the year that the bobblehead media gets it right and the Big East struggles to make a national dent.

The Big East has a four-year bowl record of 16-6, which is the No. 1 mark in the country. However, back-to-back BCS losses by Cincinnati has taken some of the luster off despite the fact that the Big East is No. 2 in the country in nonconference wins against BCS opponents over the last five seasons.

This year is a rebuilding one in the conference, with just one starting quarterback older than a sophomore and with three new coaches (for just eight spots). There is still plenty of top-end talent in this league and the conference boasts some ferocious, hard-hitting defenses. But it lacks overall experience and could go most of the year with just one or two teams inside the Top 20, and one inside the Top 10.

Here is a look at the 2010 Big East Conference:

The Favorite: West Virginia
Just about every preseason magazine had Pittsburgh as the Big East favorites, but I’m going with West Virginia. It’s a put-up or shut-up year for Bill Stewart. He was lost two seasons ago, his first back with the Mountaineers, but then I thought he did an excellent job last year squeezing as much as he could out of what he had to work with. This season he has one of the most experienced teams in the league and a whopping six three-year starters on defense. In Noel Devine he has one of the most explosive players in the country – a guy capable of having a C.J. Spiller-like impact – and Jock Sanders is a legit No. 1 option in the passing game. But the glaring Achilles heel is the quarterback. Sophomore Geno Smith is known as a “pure passer” and is a highly touted recruit. But he has no significant game experience and is a major X-factor for this team’s title hopes.

The Challenger: Pittsburgh
Call me crazy, but I trust Dave Wannstedt about as much as I trust the North Korean government. The guy is just a clown, and as such I am not counting on Pitt to go wire-to-wire for a conference crown. He has the benefit of the league’s best defense and with Dion Lewis he has a stud running back (and fringe Heisman candidate) to build around. Pitt has all sorts of talent. But when it comes down to it this team will fold because of substandard coaching. The Panthers have a killer close to the year, with a Thursday game at Connecticut, then a let down/look ahead spot in South Florida before their rivalry game against West Virginia. They then close at Cincinnati. Tricky trips to Utah, Notre Dame and Syracuse throughout the year, and a home game against Miami, give the Panthers a schedule loaded with land mines.

The Dark Horse: Connecticut
I’m a big fan of Randy Edsall and the squad he’s rolling with here. Connecticut has the most proven quarterback in the league with former Notre Dame recruit and two-year starter Zach Fraser. Fraser is just mediocre, but he still may be the best the league has to offer. Connecticut has 16 returning starters and the league’s best offensive line. This group has gone 15-4 at home over the last three years (with the two losses last year both coming by four points or less) and Storrs is becoming a tough place to come in and get a ‘W’. That gives the Huskies a nice edge this year since they get Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Cincinnati at home this year. The Huskies have a really crucial opener at Michigan. That game will let us know if they are ready to step up from “exceptional good third-tier program” to “second tier team making a cameo in The Big Time”. If they win at The Big House they should be 7-0 heading into a primetime home game with WVU.

The X-Factor: Cincinnati
It is tough to know what to expect out of the Bearcats this season. After an unprecedented (for their program) two-year run where Cincy went 23-4 it is easy to believe that they have peaked. This team lost its coach and its quarterback, and I think that they were major overachievers on defense last year. But one thing about the Bearcats is that they play with a major chip on their shoulders. The offense is still probably the best in the Big East and they have experience at key positions (other than quarterback). However, the schedule is brutal, and they have three rough games (at Fresno, at N.C. State, against Oklahoma) before they get out of September. A slow start would make everyone write this team off. But if they can go 3-1 and put up a fight against OU then I expect them to build some momentum heading into league play. But in the end, they have to go to West Virginia and to Connecticut in November. I don’t think they will make it three straight league titles but they should play a hand in deciding who earns the crown.

The Surprise Team: Syracuse
I am firmly on record as saying that if Mike Williams had come back to Syracuse this team would be going to a bowl game this year. Unfortunately, Williams bailed and is now starting in Tampa. But I still am expecting good things out of the Orange. They won’t be back to their expected place as a national power, but Doug Marrone has this team headed back in the right direction because he has instilled toughness and ferocity. SU has 10 returning starters and 12 of the top 14 tacklers back from a defense that was surprisingly feisty last year. Their offensive line is improved, running back Delone Carter gives them a workhorse to rely on, and the receiving position isn’t devoid of skill talent. The big question mark is sophomore quarterback Ryan Nassib, who had a year to learn and develop under (still can’t believe I’m writing this) Greg Paulus last year. The Orange have suffered one of the more precipitous falls in recent memory through the past decade. And while they aren’t “back” I expect them to be very competitive this year and spring an upset or two. They have a tough nonconference slate with a trip to Washington and a home finale against Boston College. But three of their last four are at home and if they can survive a Pitt-WVU-Cincy gauntlet in the middle of the year they could threaten a bowl game.

The Disappointment: South Florida
This team has had as much athleticism and skill as any in the Big East over the last three years. But they have been a perennial disappointment, faring no better than 8-5 in either of the last two seasons. Last year they entered the season with eight three-year starters and a veteran quarterback. But once Matt Grothe went down their championship dreams were sunk and this year they don’t have nearly the experience. I’m a fan of new coach Skip Holtz. And he has some big potential on offense. But in the first year of new systems on both sides of the ball, and with a bunch of guys that he didn’t recruit, I think that Holtz will struggle a bit to make his mark on this team. They won’t fall off the map but I don’t see them taking that Next Step this year – again.

The Rest:

Rutgers – Their amazing 2006 is looking more and more like a flash in the pan. Rutgers has gone a respectable 25-14 over the last three years but they don’t have any league titles to show for their work and have been relegated to third-tier bowls against teams like Ball State and Central Florida. Now they enter what appears to be a rebuilding season, with just 12 returning starters from a team that was just 3-4 in the Big East last season. They have to play at Pitt, at Cincy and at West Virginia this season and have a rough nonconference game against North Carolina. I don’t see them winning any of them.

Louisville – The Bobby Petrino Era must seem like forever ago for this sad-sack program. Louisville doesn’t have anywhere near the talent they boasted at the start of last decade, when they rung up three double-digit win seasons in six years from 2001 to 2006. But they do have some pieces to build with this year. Victor Anderson is back after an injury sabotaged 2009 and this club has four offensive line starters returning. They are in the first year of the Charlie Strong Era, and the former Florida defensive coordinator is a guy that I think can build the Cardinals program back up. But they are a work in progress. They won’t be a pushover, and this will be a tricky team to bet on or against this season.

Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. Last year he brought home +62.5 Units for his clients in the NFL and he is regarded as one of the top totals players in the sport. He guarantees a winning football season this year or he will work for free until you turn a profit. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.

There was a very good article in the Las Vegas Review Journal this week about the UFL football league actually embracing sports gambling and the sports books out in Las Vegas. Here is the link if you have some interest.

Now, you would have to be an idiot to think that the NFL would be like the NHL if it weren’t just for gambling. That said, football is like most other major sports and the popularity, to an extent, is driven by the ability to gamble on it. You know that every coach, player, owner and beer guy is at least aware of the spread on any given game. And even if they weren’t out there making NFL football picks or active in NFL football betting they were at least able to admit it was a big part of the draw.

I take my hat off to the UFL for basically laying it out to Vegas and the offshore books and admitting that they need gambling in order to survive. And I, for one, hope that this league succeeds. And if that happens to be the case maybe there are other fringe sports in this country that would embrace gambling as a way to increase popularity and also boost revenue. (Yes, I’m talking to you Arena Football, WNBA, NHL and MLS. Your viewing audience would go up by at least one – ME!

Myself, Vegas Sports Informer, Allen Eastman and Strike Point Sports all have some football futures, both college and NFL, available for purchase at Doc’s Sports Services. But Indian Cowboy is throwing one down for the little people and handing out some futures predictions of his own. Check it out below:

Below is a list of current odds for winning the AFC and NFC Championship. While picking the Super Bowl winner is the favorite betting prop for futures players, betting a team to win the conference title an provide better value because there are fewer teams to sift through in each conference. If you can realistically eliminate five or six teams from each conference (sorry Detroit fans, you’re not winning the NFC this year) then that really leaves just 8-10 teams with a legit shot in each conference. From there you can sift through value and take a shot on the teams that you like in each spot. And in the end you can probably come up with five or six teams that you think can cash this ticket. That’s a lot better odds than trying to find the four or five teams out of 32 that can win the Super Bowl.

In the AFC, I think that the best odds rest on the middle-tier teams. The usual suspects - Indianapolis, New England and San Diego - are relatively short odds, considering that they are each at the back end of their “dynastic” years. The Jets are appealing to some at 6-to-1, but that’s what is called a “Joey” play and is a bit of a sucker bet. I do like the NFL betting odds on the AFC North teams though. I think that this is a talented, deep division and that two of the teams out of the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals will make the playoffs. And I think that any one of those teams, once they make the postseason, would be a significant threat to win the AFC title.

In the NFC, things are a bit more wide-open. New Orleans is obviously one of the favorites, but the reality is that there hasn’t been a repeat NFC champion since 1997-1998 when the Packers made back-to-back Super Bowls. That seems to open the door for Dallas, who is clearly a Super Bowl contender. However, this conference has been known for its unpredictability over the last decade. Minnesota has decent odds - if Brett Favre comes back - and I think that Green Bay is a sucker play. I think that Washington, Arizona and San Francisco offer decent odds as longshot wagers, despite the fact that Arizona and San Fran have big question marks at quarterback.

Here is a look at the odds to win the 2010-11 AFC and NFC Championship:

ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 AFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Open Current
Indianapolis 13/4 13/4
New England 9/2 9/2
San Diego 9/2 9/2
N.Y. Jets 17/2 6/1
Baltimore 11/1 7/1
Pittsburgh 13/2 10/1
Tennessee 10/1 12/1
Cincinnati 18/1 13/1
Houston 14/1 14/1
Miami 15/1 14/1
Denver 22/1 25/1
Jacksonville 22/1 25/1
Cleveland 30/1 40/1
Kansas City 60/1 50/1
Oakland 60/1 50/1
Buffalo 50/1 60/1

ODDS TO WIN THE 2010-2011 NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
Team Open Current
Dallas 4/1 4/1
New Orleans 7/2 4/1
Green Bay 9/2 9/2
Minnesota 11/2 6/1
N.Y. Giants 15/2 15/2
Atlanta 10/1 10/1
Philadelphia 10/1 14/1
Washington 25/1 14/1
Chicago 14/1 15/1
San Francisco 20/1 20/1
Arizona 20/1 25/1
Carolina 30/1 30/1
Seattle 40/1 30/1
Detroit 40/1 40/1
Tampa Bay 60/1 50/1
St. Louis 75/1 75/1

I posted an article on your No. 1 pick for winning NFL betting predictions, Doc’s Sports, (OK, that was a shameless plug, but I gotta show the love) that discussed the following information in more detail, but I wanted to post some information here as well. In my analysis for the upcoming NFL season, as I always do, I broke down which teams that I think could bounce back or regress due to their turnover differential. In this post and my other article I am looking specifically at the teams that lead the league in turnover margin and how those team’s fare the next season.

As you may suspect, the answer is: not well.

Over the last 10 years I found 14 teams that either led or were tied for the league lead in turnover margin, or were in second place with an exorbitantly high number of +18 or higher. I then tracked the records of those teams the next year and the results were predictable, but stunning nonetheless.

Thirteen of the 14 teams that I tracked since 2000 had fewer wins the following year and every single season those teams had a smaller turnover differential. The average turnover margin was about 19 TO’s less the year after being at or near the top of the league and the teams experienced, on average, 3.3 fewer wins.

The Colts, led by the incomparable Peyton Manning, actually kind of skewed our numbers. The 2005 Colts were the lone team to improve their record and the 2008 only saw their record decreas by one loss (from 13-3 to 12-4). If we discount the two Colt seasons as outliers the other 12 teams experienced an average drop of 20.9 in their turnover margin and 3.9 in their win total.

For the 2010 season there is just one team that falls into this category: the Green Bay Packers. And as I discussed in my 2010 NFC North Preview, the Packers went 11-5 last year but benefited from an incredible +24 turnover margin. That was tied for the highest margin in the last decade. The two previous teams, the 2007 Chargers and 2005 Bengals, both posted a +24 and they saw their win totals drop by three wins the following year. that means that if form and the numbers hold then the Packers could slide back to just 8-8 or 7-9 this season. that would have to be considered a pretty significant “upset” considering how much hype that team is getting as a Super Bowl contender.

Here are the results from my research:

2008 Turnover Leader: Miami (11-5 record with +17 turnovers)
2009 Record: Miami (7-9 record, -8 TO) for -4 wins

2007 Turnover Leaders: San Diego (11-5, +24 TO) and Indianapolis (13-3, +18 TO)
2008 Results: San Diego (8-8, +4 TO) and Indianapolis (12-4, +9 TO) for -3 and -1 wins

2006 Turnover Leader: Baltimore (13-3, +17 TO)
2007 Results: Baltimore (5-11, -17 TO) for -8 wins

2005 Turnover Leaders: Cincinnati (11-5, +24 TO) and Denver (13-3, +20 TO)
2006 Results: Cincinnati (8-8, +7 TO) and Denver (9-7, +0 TO), for -3 and -4 wins

2004 Turnover Leaders: Indianapolis (12-4, +19 TO) and New York Jets (10-6, +18 TO)
2005 Results: Indy (14-2, +12 TO) and New York Jets (4-12, -6 TO), for +2 and -6 wins

2003 Turnover Leaders: Kansas City (13-3, +19 TO)
2004 Results: Kansas City (7-9, -6 TO) for -6 wins

2002 Turnover Leaders: Tampa Bay (12-4, +17 TO) and Green Bay (12-4, +17 TO)
2003 Results: Tampa Bay (7-9, +2 TO) and Green Bay (10-6, +0 TO), for -5 and -2 wins

2001 Turnover Leaders: New York Jets (10-6, +18 TO)
2002 Results: Jets (9-7, +4 TO) for -1 win

2000 Turnover Leaders: Baltimore (12-4, +23 TO) and Denver (11-5, +19 TO)
2001 Results: Baltimore (10-6, -8 TO) and Denver (8-8, +10 TO), for -2 and -3 wins

Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports and NFL handicapper for Doc’s Sports. Last year his NFL picks brought home +62.5 Units for his clients and he is regarded as one of the top totals players in the sport. He guarantees a winning football season this year or he will work for free until you turn a profit. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.

I came across a very interesting blog post courtesy of the Fifth Down blog for the New York Times. In it, the author utilized some Pro Football Reference value metrics to come up with which players contribute the most to each team on offense and defense. From those players - mostly starters and key reserves - he was able to calculate a “functional” age of each team in the NFL. This is a better way of determining which teams have the oldest and youngest rosters, and individual offensive and defensive units, in the league rather than just counting up everyone’s age and then figuring out a 53-player average for each team. Especially because some teams employ backup quarterbacks, fifth-string wideouts, or special teams players (think kickers and punters) that are either extremely young or extremely old, which would skew the overall age numbers.

It’s a pretty interesting read, and if you’re not sure what I’m talking about click over and you will get a more in-depth explanation. But basically, this version gives you a truer sense of the most and least experienced teams heading into the season. (One caveat, he did these figures back in May using projections for starters. I’m sure some injuries and some late free agents would skew these numbers. But nothing major has happened that would have an overwhelming difference, in my opinion.)

Below is a look at the average age of the 32 NFL rosters, in terms of the players who contribute the most to the offense and defense. After the jump is a full list of the average “functional” roster ages for every offensive and defensive group in the NFL.

Age Team
25.9 Houston Texans
26.4 Jacksonville Jaguars
26.6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26.6 St. Louis Rams
26.6 New York Giants
26.7 Philadelphia Eagles
26.8 Miami Dolphins
26.8 Kansas City Chiefs
26.9 Chicago Bears
26.9 San Francisco 49ers
26.9 Carolina Panthers
26.9 Detroit Lions
27.0 Cincinnati Bengals
27.1 San Diego Chargers
27.2 Tennessee Titans
27.2 Oakland Raiders
27.3 Cleveland Browns
27.3 Green Bay Packers
27.3 Atlanta Falcons
27.4 New Orleans Saints
27.4 Seattle Seahawks
27.4 Indianapolis Colts
27.5 Baltimore Ravens
27.5 Buffalo Bills
27.6 New York Jets
27.7 Dallas Cowboys
28.0 Pittsburgh Steelers
28.0 Arizona Cardinals
28.1 Washington Redskins
28.2 Denver Broncos
28.3 Minnesota Vikings
28.7 New England Patriots
Here is a list of the “functional” ages of the 32 NFL offensive units:

26.1 Philadelphia Eagles
26.1 Miami Dolphins
26.2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26.4 St. Louis Rams
26.5 Houston Texans
26.5 New York Giants
26.5 Chicago Bears
26.5 San Francisco 49ers
26.5 Baltimore Ravens
26.6 Oakland Raiders
26.6 Cleveland Browns
26.8 Carolina Panthers
26.8 Pittsburgh Steelers
26.9 Tennessee Titans
27.0 Kansas City Chiefs
27.0 Detroit Lions
27.1 Jacksonville Jaguars
27.1 Green Bay Packers
27.1 New Orleans Saints
27.3 San Diego Chargers
27.4 Denver Broncos
27.5 Buffalo Bills
27.6 Arizona Cardinals
27.7 New York Jets
27.8 Seattle Seahawks
27.9 Atlanta Falcons
28.1 Indianapolis Colts
28.1 Dallas Cowboys
28.2 Washington Redskins
28.4 Cincinnati Bengals
28.6 Minnesota Vikings
29.7 New England Patriots

As you can see, there is a significant difference between the teams. And perhaps it is no coincidence that last year five of the six teams with the oldest offenses made the playoffs and were Super Bowl contenders. However, we’ll see if that carries over to this season.

Here is a look of the “functional” average ages of the 32 NFL defensive units:

25.3 Houston Texans
25.6 Jacksonville Jaguars
25.9 Cincinnati Bengals
26.5 Indianapolis Colts
26.6 Kansas City Chiefs
26.6 Atlanta Falcons
26.7 New York Giants
26.7 San Diego Chargers
26.8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26.8 St. Louis Rams
26.9 Detroit Lions
27.0 Carolina Panthers
27.1 Seattle Seahawks
27.2 San Francisco 49ers
27.2 Dallas Cowboys
27.3 Philadelphia Eagles
27.3 Chicago Bears
27.5 Oakland Raiders
27.5 Green Bay Packers
27.5 Buffalo Bills
27.5 New England Patriots
27.6 Tennessee Titans
27.6 New York Jets
27.7 Miami Dolphins
27.9 Cleveland Browns
27.9 New Orleans Saints
27.9 Minnesota Vikings
28.1 Washington Redskins
28.4 Baltimore Ravens
28.4 Arizona Cardinals
28.9 Denver Broncos
29.2 Pittsburgh Steelers

Again, we’ll see how the older defenses hold up compared to the younger ones as the season progresses. Some people might think that “fresh legs” or “young legs” would be a benefit because it decreases the risk of injury and perhaps young players will hold up better later into the season. Or does the experience and age give the “older” defenses an advantage that they can utilize as the season grows on and the games get more important.

On our main source for NFL picks and predictions, Doc’s Sports.com, I posted an article discussing Yards Per Point. This is one of the least discussed statistics in football, but it is also an excellent indicator of success both straight up and against the spread. I was initially turned on to this idea by the work of another well respected handicapper (for obvious reasons, I can’t list his name, but I can say that it rhymes with “Bill Wheel”). He uses it primarily for college football I’ve found, through some research online, that certain statistical thresholds provide reliable data in the NFL as well. Again, the numbers I have are my own calculations built off the initial findings of others discussing the subject. (It’s not as if any one person invented the stat.)

You can read the full article on the main page to get a more in-depth explanation about these stats and how and why they are useful. But below I wanted to give you the Cliff’s Notes version of how Yards Per Point can help you in your preseason preparation.

Below are the 2009 Yards Per Point numbers for both offense and defense. I have segmented out each section and from there you can tell which clubs are, statistically speaking, set up for either a regression with their record or a nice bounce back in their record.

2009 YARDS PER POINT (OFFENSE)
The seven teams listed below have a 72 percent chance (49-19) of having a record that is either equal to or worse than what they posted in 2009.
New Orleans – 12.66
San Diego – 12.68
Minnesota – 12.91
Green Bay – 13.16
Philadelphia – 13.35
Colts – 13.97
San Francisco – 14.12

The eight teams below have a 74 percent chance (42-15) of posting a 2010 record that is either the same or better than they had last year.
Dallas – 17.67
Seattle – 18.10
Detroit – 18.23
Jacksonville – 18.60
Washington – 18.83
Tampa Bay – 18.91
Oakland – 21.63
St. Louis – 25.63

2009 YARDS PER POINT (DEFENSE)
The teams below have a 69 percent chance (73-33) of having a worse record than they had in 2009.
Dallas – 20.25
San Francisco – 18.54
Baltimore – 18.44
New England – 17.99
Atlanta – 17.19
Arizona – 17.06
New York Jets – 17.05
New Orleans – 16.80
Buffalo – 16.70
Cleveland – 16.64
Cincinnati – 16.56
Carolina – 16.44
San Diego – 16.35

The following teams have a 79 percent chance (72-19) of improving their record in 2010.
Tennessee – 14.56
Indy – 14.50
Chicago – 14.44
Miami – 14.32
St. Louis – 13.70
Detroit – 12.69
New York Giants – 12.22

Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. Last year his NFL picks brought home +62.5 Units for his clients and he is regarded as one of the top totals players for NFL odds in the sport. He guarantees a winning football season this year or he will work for free until you turn a profit. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.

Here are some just snap thoughts from the first half of the Hall of Fame Game on Sunday night between Dallas and Cincinnati:

- Let’s start with the positive. It was a really nice night for Doug Free and for John Phillips for the Cowboys. Free is going to be fine on that monstrous offensive line and Phillips looked really sharp (well, until he blew out his knee. Rumor has it that he tore one of his CL’s.) In my opinion, Martellus Bennett might be the most overrated bench player (and one of the most overrated players, period) in the league. But now with nothing behind him he can go on being, well, himself and not getting the job done.

For Cincinnati, I really liked what I saw out of some defenders. I know that Dallas walked down the field on the opening drive, but I was impressed. Jon Fanene looked excellent and I really liked how athletic Antwan Odom and Michael Johnson looked.

- If you want to know how to spot good teams – I’m talking legit playoff teams and clubs battling for titles (divisional, conference, league) – one of the things you need to look for is depth. Alex Barron isn’t fighting for a starting job. But there are a lot of teams that would love to have a former No. 1 pick with years of starting experience as a backup swing tackle.

On the Bengals side, their second team defense is better than some of the units they have trotted out in the last decade. Chris Crocker got injured early in the game and Cincy had Gibril Wilson – starter for the Super Bowl champion Giants in 2007 – to turn to. Guys like Frostee Rucker, Johnson, and Pac Man Jones give them solid depth at all levels of that unit. And THAT is what good teams have.

- Terrible night for the Cowboys running backs. I’m sure all of bobbleheads and bloggers will be all over this one tomorrow, but just wanted to throw in my two cents. It wasn’t just the fumbles, but there was also some indecisive cutting and missed blocking assignments. I know it is early but that was not a good start.

(Gotta say, Felix Jones looks a lot bigger. Will he maintain his explosiveness?)

- If Tony Romo gets hurt I think that Dallas can still compete with Jon Kitna. If Carson Palmer gets hurt, the Bengals are screwed. J.T. O’Sullivan? Seriously? How can you be considered a Super Bowl contender and not have some kind of contingency plan for a starting quarterback that is two years removed from major knee surgery?

Oh, and Stephen McGee is not an NFL quarterback. Never will be. He stunk in college and he isn’t any good now.

- I’m pretty confident Dallas would have scored a touchdown on that opening drive if it were taking place during the regular season. I got the impression that they didn’t want to show too much. It’s not as if their philosophy – pounding the ball down people’s throat – is much of a surprise.

- Another thing I didn’t like was Roy Williams’ (Dallas) body language. Tony Romo missed him a couple times – mainly due to pressure – and I just didn’t like Williams’ reaction. It’s a small thin, but it is there. Williams may seem like he’s cool – with all of the abuse, with the whole Dez Bryant situation – but right now he’s got the look of a festering sore in that locker room.

- The play was a little raggedy at times last night. (Hey, it’s the first game of the preseason, what can you expect, right?) But Wade Phillips and Marvin Lewis were in mid-season form.

Again, I’m not going to kill the guys for sloppy play in a preseason game. Last year the Titans had 14 penalties in the opener. But there were 11 penalties in the first half last night and eight of them were on Cincinnati. And with Dallas, between the fumbles to kill scoring drives and a bad timeout that they had to take right before  field goal attempt, it was just the same old stuff. I will give a pass to Jeff Fisher last year. He’s been to a Super Bowl and is a great coach. But in a season where Dallas and Cincinnati are really expected to compete for conference championships you would think that there would be much more of a focus from the coaches on being disciplined.

Bottom line: Cincinnati and Dallas both have very, very talented teams. But I have zero confidence – ZERO – in Lewis or Phillips. In my opinion they are both clowns and are a bettor’s worst nightmare.