Four Down, One To Go: Kentucky Going To Hit The Wall
Back in the first week of December I wrote an article about the most overrated college basketball teams in the country. Here’s how the Top 5 has shaken out:
No. 5 North Carolina
With three straight losses, two at home, and a 1-3 start in conference play UNC is on its way out of the Top 25. They got rocked at Clemson, lost at Charleston, and were rolled in Texas in their last three games away from home. Basically, this team sucks. They have guards that simply aren’t ACC-caliber and this team is going to end up scrambling to stay out of the NIT.
No. 4 Connecticut
Connecticut is holding on. They are No. 21 in the ESPN poll and they are out of the AP Top 25. Now their coach is in the wind and, despite a spirited win over St. John’s this week, they are still backsliding a bit. I will admit that this team is a bit better than I originally thought – mainly because of Stanley Robinson – but they still have a lot of work to do and they don’t deserve to be a Top 25 team.
No. 3 Butler
The Bulldogs are in Horizon play now so their issues are going to be masked quite a bit against inferior competition. But they dropped from a Top 10 team to one that is out of the Top 25 in the AP and oscillating at No. 20. They were the beneficiary of two really fortunate wins and that will get them in The Dance (barring a collapse). They beat Ohio State in their first game without Evan Turner and then used an officiating error to beat Xavier by one.
No. 2 Washington
I still think that the Huskies will be able to work their way into the NCAA Tournament but they are nowhere near the Top 10 team that they were in November.
No. 1 Kentucky
So here we are. Of the five teams that I tabbed back then, this is the only one that is still working their façade. The Wildcats are No. 2 in the country and unbeaten. And I’ll admit, they are getting better as their freshmen get more experience. However, their three best wins came against teams – Connecticut, UNC, and Louisville – that are outside of the 25 and of no threat to make a move. Also, two of those games were at home and one was on a neutral court. And the UNC and Connecticut wins were by two and three points, respectively.
But the stats have Kentucky at No. 13, the RPI has them at No. 10, and I think that they are around No. 14. Still, that’s better than I expected from this group. I thought they were a fringe Top 25 team. But I do know this: they aren’t the No. 2 team in the nation.
Kentucky has played the No. 104 schedule in the country according to Real RPI and No. 150 overall according to another metric that I trust. They have also played three of the weaker teams in the up-and-down SEC (Georgia, Florida, Auburn) and are just 1-2 ATS in those three games.
Kentucky’s schedule is backloaded. Four of their last six games are on the road starting with a trip to Starkville on Feb. 16 that comes just two days after a big home matchup with Tennessee. They have a three-game stretch coming up against Vanderbilt, Ole Miss and at LSu. Then a wek after that they play Tennessee, Miss. State, Vandy, South Carolina, at Tennessee and then at Georgia in a trap before closing the year at home against Florida.
The bottom line is that if you haven’t been on the Kentucky Fade Train I think now is a good time to hop on. The Wildcats are 8-8 ATS on the season, but they also haven’t (and won’t) covered more than two straight games. The oddsmakers and the public are all over this team. But I’m sticking to my guns. I was right about all of the other teams and I’m right about Kentucky. They are still overrated and they are still going to be a great fade down the stretch. This team is going to hit The Wall. And when they do we’ll be banking against them.
