Carolina Like Desperate Fat Chick At End Of Bar; Duke Ready To Bang

By Robert Ferringo

Last fall I remember reading an article by CBS basketball columnist Gregg Doyel discussing why and how North Carolina has overwhelmed Duke as the dominant power on Tobacco Road. Doyel’s belief was that Coach Mike Krzyzewski was somehow in over his head against Roy Williams and his Heels and that the balance of power in the ACC would not tip back Duke’s way until one of the two coaches retire.

So, after watching over three full months of basketball – if that’s what you call what North Carolina has been doing - I wonder who Doyel has his money on tonight.

Duke will roll down to Chapel Hill tonight to tangle with North Carolina. The Blue Devils are a 5.5-point favorite and the total in this matchup is a blustery 155.5. The spread has actually dipped from a high of 6.0 this morning despite the fact that nearly 70 percent of the action has come in on the Blue Devils.

On paper this game looks like a mismatch. Duke is the No. 7 team in the country and the ACC front-runner with a solid 7-2 conference record and a 19-4 mark overall. The Blue Devils are No. 9 in the country in scoring and No. 88 in defense and have one of the best backcourts in the league. This team is as strong on the interior as it has been in six years and with three veterans – Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith – leading they way they are back in the discussion as a potential Final Four team.

North Carolina, on the other hand, has been a disaster. They are currently 10th out of 12 teams in the ACC standings and have only two wins in nine tries since New Year’s Day. Carolina has been embarrassed in its last two home games, losing by 15 to Virginia (yeah, Virginia) and by 13 to Wake Forest. The Tar Heels have exited the Top 25 after absurdly starting the year in the Top 10 and right now their odds for even making the NCAA Tournament have to be no better than 50-50.

Given that Duke has plenty of built up revenge having to do with three straight losses – and six of seven overall – at the hands of their hated rivals you would think that tonight’s game would get very ugly very quickly.

But if there is anything that I know about college basketball it’s that when things start to seem a bit too easy that’s exactly when bettors get a 2×4 to the dome delivered by the books.

The underdog is 13-4 against the spread in the last 17 meetings and North Carolina is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. Beyond that, the reverse line movement on this game (a majority of the bets are coming in on Duke while the line is heading back toward Carolina) suggests that the books may be ready to spring a trap. This will be one of the most heavily bet games of the month. And since Vegas isn’t in the habit of losing money it’s easy to get the feeling that this could be another vintage public burial on the altar of Rivalry Week, with the betting public getting creamed by a “surprise” Carolina win (or at least cover).

From a motivation standpoint it’s obvious that Duke has the revenge upper hand. But I think it’s easy to make the case that this game means infinitely more to the Tar Heels. Right now their postseason aspirations are floundering. They have lost six of seven games overall. They are getting their hated rivals and a Top 10 team on their home floor. Simply put, this game is their Super Bowl. A win here and it doesn’t matter what happens the rest of the month. And for a team as young and as desperate as the Heels what bigger motivation is there?

Further, Duke has been a pretty weak road team this season. On Saturday they narrowly escaped Chestnut Hill with a three-point win over mediocre Boston College. Prior to that they had been floored by Georgetown and had losses at North Carolina State, Georgia Tech and Wisconsin. Overall the Blue Devils are 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in road games this season.

Duke has been a solid 4-0 SU and ATS in neutral site games against the likes of Connecticut and Gonzaga. But it’s safe to say that the Dean Dome won’t be neutral tonight.

So this is a situation where the Blue Devils could be ambushed and we could have yet another reminder of the magic of the Rivalry Game in college basketball. However, I am still firmly of the belief that any argument for North Carolina is a desperate one at best.

North Carolina has been one of the worst bets in the country this year at 7-14 ATS. Bettors, and the general college hoops loving public, have been very slow to embrace the fact that this is actually just a wretched Tar Heels team. They are No. 294 (of 342) in the country in scoring defense and their guard play is among the worst of any BCS school. The Heels are woefully inexperienced, they have no go-to player, and what was perceived as a strength – their imposing size with six of their top eight players standing 6-8 or taller – has been a weakness because it’s made them slow and awkward on both ends of the floor.

The reality here is that North Carolina has dominated this series recently because they have had far superior talent. But as big of a disparity as there has been on one side of the ledger in the past three years it has swung completely the opposite way this season. If UNC can’t even handle a team like Virginia Tech or Wake Forest I don’t understand how they can play 40 minutes with one of the Top dozen teams in the nation.

Emotion is the ever-present sixth man in college basketball. And one of the most intense rivalries in sports will bring out the best in everyone on the court tonight at North Carolina. But I, for one, will be really surprised if the Tar Heels manage to win this game or even play within a possession or two of the Blue Devils. Duke finally has the upper hand in this series and can finally match up with the size and strength of the Heels underneath. That has been exactly the area where they couldn’t compete over the last several seasons. And when you consider the enormous disparity in the guard play – both from the standpoint of skill and experience – I think it will take a Herculean effort out of a bunch of Heels that have never experienced the emotion of this intense rivalry just to stay competitive.

It’s advantage, Blue Devils. But, as we’ve seen oh so often in this game, you just never know how far a little emotion and the intensity of a great rivalry can carry an undermanned opponent. And one way or another this should be another entertaining chapter in one of the best matchups in all of college basketball.