You Tell Me Which Bubble Teams Are In Or Out

By Robert Ferringo

Below is a comprehensive look at the bubble teams that are realistically being considered for the NCAA Tournament and a little March Madness. While I wouldn’t bet on the NCAA Selection Committee not screwing someone over I would say that the teams I have below are fighting for the last nine spots in the NCAA field.

CLICK HERE to take a look at my most recent NCAA Tournament Projections. As you can see, my last 10 teams in are:

56. UNLV
57. UTEP (will lose their bid if they don’t win the CUSA Tournament)
58. Florida
59. Illinois
60. Connecticut
61. Georgia Tech
62. Mississippi
63. Virginia Tech
64. Notre Dame
65. Washington (bid stolen by St. Mary’s)

Well, St. Mary’s stole an at-large bid last night by virtue of their West Coast Conference tournament title. Unfortunately for the bubble teams sweating out this last week that likely won’t be the last bid stolen. But for now that list of 10 open slots has been cut to nine. Below are the teams that I think are battling for those slots. The top three - UNLV, Florida and Illinois - are pretty securely in the field, as you can see by their resume. And from there you can rationally compare the squads that are competing for those last six spots. Keep all of these resumes in mind this week (and the numbers will cahnge with wins and losses all over the country) when you are listening to that tout and fraud Joe Lunardi this week try to tell you who is in and who is out. Just remember: Lunardi isn’t on the selection committee. His opinion, really, doesn’t mean dick. So nothing he says has any relevance for anything nor does it serve anything more than to keep his self-important position and line his pockets. (And yes, I think I know more basketball than Joe Lunardi.)

Here’s the real story of the NCAA Tournament bubble:

SAFE BETS (teams No. 56-58):
UNLV
RPI: 47
KP Rating: 36
Strength of Schedule: 99
Nonconference SOS: 138
Key Wins: Louisville, New Mexico, BYU
Skinny: The Rebels completely fit the profile and they are in. The Mountain West should have gotten more bids last year and this year they take advantage of the Pac-10’s demise.

FLORIDA
RPI: 53
KP Rating: 49
Strength of Schedule: 58
Nonconference SOS: 215
Key Wins: Florida State, Michigan State, Mississippi, Tennessee
Skinny: Their terrible nonconference schedule is balanced by key wins over Florida State and Michigan State. The Tennessee win really punched their ticket.

ILLINOIS
RPI: 73
KP Rating: 56
Strength of Schedule: 14
Nonconference SOS: 114
Key Wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Skinny: The RPI is horrifying and only 10 teams since 1991 have gotten into the field with an RPI of 60 or lower. But I think some action over the next week is going to get that number down. They have won big games in conference (Michigan State and Wisconsin) and have solid wins out of conference (at Clemson and Vanderbilt). Overall it’s a solid body of work despite a late free fall.

BET THEY ARE IN…FOR NOW (teams No. 59-64):
CONNECTICUT
RPI: 55
KP Rating: 45
Strength of Schedule: 3
Nonconference SOS: 56
Key Wins: West Virginia, Villanova, Texas
Skinny: I know that they have been a mess over the last couple months. But if people are going to consider teams playing without their best players (Notre Dame and Ohio State are getting passes and extra credit for playing without their players) then UConn should get credit for their coach going MIA midseason. I just don’t see how you can ignore the SOS and they have the requisite key wins.

GEORGIA TECH
RPI: 44
KP Rating: 29
Strength of Schedule: 13
Nonconference SOS: 256
Key Wins: Wake Forest, Clemson, Duke
Skinny: Here is another team where the numbers just don’t make sense. How do they have a higher RPI than Illinois by 30 points when they have played comparable overall schedules and Illinois has played such a better nonconference slate? Tech will make the field – barely – but one more win should do the trick. This team played its way onto the bubble.

MISSISSIPPI
RPI: 56
KP Rating: 52
Strength of Schedule: 68
Nonconference SOS: 195
Key Wins: Kansas State, UTEP
Skinny: This team actually may have done itself a disservice by not playing in the first round of the SEC Tournament. That would have given them a chance to pick up a win over a bottom feeder and pad the resume a bit. Instead they will get a quarterfinal matchup against Tennessee (most likely) and that could create a “win and in” situation.

VIRGINIA TECH
RPI: 50
KP Rating: 28
Strength of Schedule: 67
Nonconference SOS: 327
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Clemson
Skinny: This team may be good enough to be in the field but you have to penalize them for playing such a sorry-ass nonconference schedule. Even their wins in the ACC aren’t that impressive as they didn’t beat any of the top-tier teams. This club is a fraud.

NOTRE DAME
RPI: 57
KP Rating: 47
Strength of Schedule: 69
Nonconference SOS: 341
Key Wins: Marquette, Connecticut, Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia
Skinny: The Irish are another team that I don’t think are being penalized enough for playing one of the six worst nonconference schedules in the country. They didn’t leave home and they didn’t even bring in any decent teams. I know they are hot now but isn’t this supposed to be about the whole body of work?

BET THEY NEED TO MAKE UP SOME GROUND - AND GET LUCKY (team No. 65)
UTEP
RPI: 41
KP Rating: 39
Strength of Schedule: 145
Nonconference SOS: 301
Key Wins: Memphis, swept UAB
Skinny: If they don’t win their conference tournament I don’t think this team will make it in. I do think that they are talented enough to be in the field of 65 and are one of the best teams. But they didn’t play anyone. I think it would be very ridiculous (but not unprecedented) to put UAB in over UTEP when the Miners swept the season series.

WASHINGTON
RPI: 33
KP Rating: 49
Strength of Schedule: 56
Nonconference SOS: 120
Key Wins: Cal, Texas A&M
Skinny: I think I would take Washington before I took a lot of these other teams and I’m actually stunned that we’re talking about as many as three bids from the Pac-10. If a random team (like an Arizona) wins the tournament but if Washington makes a good showing they could join Cal in the field.

SAN DIEGO STATE
RPI: 43
KP Rating: 33
Strength of Schedule: 86
Nonconference SOS: 108
Key Wins: UNLV, New Mexico
Skinny: This team got screwed last year with a much better team so I can see them getting the shaft again this year. They are shaping up to be the new Florida State, which was the 66th team like three years running. A run to the Mountain Finals may punch their ticket. Anything short of that is trouble.

DAYTON
RPI: 51
KP Rating: 44
Strength of Schedule: 71
Nonconference SOS: 77
Key Wins: Georgia Tech, Xavier
Skinny: The Flyers just have so many close calls that didn’t go their way. They have about a half-dozen losses by four points or less. But they needed to win some of those games. They are good enough to be in the field but they haven’t done enough. If they beat Xavier in the second round they will make it very, very interesting.

BET THEY DON’T HAVE A SHOT - OUTSIDE OF WINNING THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT (See you in the NIT):

SOUTH FLORIDA
RPI:
KP Rating: 74
Strength of Schedule: 29
Nonconfernece SOS: 211
Key Wins: Pitt, Georgetown, Connecticut
Skinny: They really aren’t that far away from Notre Dame. And both of their losses to ND are what is keeping them out of the field ahead of the Irish. And both of those games came down to the last two minutes. They would have to beat Georgetown and Syracuse to make this happen. But that’s ridiculous.

CHARLOTTE
RPI: 97
KP Rating: 66
Strength of Schedule: 77
Nonconference SOS: 129
Key Wins: Louisville, Richmond, Temple
Skinny: They lost six of their last seven games and came close-but-not-close-enough from some critical wins. If they could have just split (say 4-3) those last seven I think they would be on the cusp. But barring a crazy run this team is out.

RHODE ISLAND
RPI: 75
KP Rating: 39
Strength of Schedule: 82
Nonconference SOS: 71
Key Wins: Oklahoma State
Skinny: This is where Joe Lunardi is a dickhead. He’s had Rhode Island yo-yoing in and out for weeks. How? What has this team done? They beat Ok. State. But is that better than Mississippi beating Kansas State? No way. And Ole Miss plays in a major (see: better) conference. Rhode Island has about a 1 percent shot.

ARIZONA STATE
RPI: 52
KP Rating: 37
Strength of Schedule: 65
Nonconference SOS: 161
Key Wins: None
Skinny: Just the fact that they are in the discussion is solid work. But they have no solid wins and the best victory on the docket may be a win over SDSU. That doesn’t do it.

UAB
RPI: 40
KP Rating: 61
Strength of Schedule: 100
Nonconference SOS: 147
Key Wins: Butler
Skinny: This team is 0-4 against Memphis and UTEP, so I don’t see any way that they are even in the discussion.

MEMPHIS
RPI: 46
KP Rating: 50
Strength of Schedule: 133
Nonconference SOS: 246
Key Wins: None
Skinny: This team is getting credit for close losses to Kansas, UTEP, Tennessee and Gonzaga. But they have zero quality wins so I don’t see any possible way that they can make the field outside of winning the CUSA tournament.