Early Betting Percentages On NFL Week 1 Lines
Since Pinnacle and Olympic followed Cantor Gaming’s lead and have produced 2012 NFL Week 1 odds and spreads that means we can start to track line movement based on actual wagers. In my opinion, early release spreads and lines are very valuable for gauging early season lines as I have witnessed a direct correlation to the largest line moves from open and the actual results against the spread in the opener. (Maybe I’ll reveal that in a later post. Check back!)
My line service has already begun releasing betting percentages for the action coming in on these early lines. Granted, any book that takes action on a game more than four months before it is going to be played will impose bet limits (usually $500) so it isn’t “big money” moving lines and loading up.
However, when I think about the people that are willing to lay out their cash on an investment that won’t be decided for four months I am certain that there aren’t a bunch of squares and not a lot of dead money being thrown at these books.
I will reserve saying that the “sharp money” is already moving these lines. However, I will say that the early betting percentages on these extremely early 2012 NFL Week 1 lines are, at the very least, an interesting indicator on where the money will come in when the books open the flood gates and start taking more “serious” action.
Here is a look at the Week 1 NFL betting percentages:
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at New York Giants - Cowboys 56 percent, Giants 44
Indianapolis Colts (+9.5) at Chicago Bears - Colts 21 percent, Bears 79 percent
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Cleveland Browns - Eagles 92 percent, Browns 8 percent
Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets - Bills 80 percent, Jets 20 percent
Washington Redskins (+9.5) at New Orleans Saints - Redskins 65 percent, Saints 35 percent
New England Patriots (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans - Patriots 96 percent, Titans 4 percent
Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) at Minnesota Vikings - Jaguars 29 percent, Vikings 71 percent
Miami Dolphins (+6) at Houston Texans - Dolphins 3 percent, Texans 97 percent
St. Louis Rams (+9.5) at Detroit Lions - Rams 12 percent, Lions 88 percent
Atlanta Falcons (PICK) at Kansas City Chiefs - Falcons 72 percent, Chiefs 28 percent
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) at Green Bay Packers - Niners 16 percent, Packers 84 percent
Carolina Panthers (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Panthers 67 percent, Bucs 33 percent
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Arizona Cardinals - Seahawks 50 percent, Cardinals 50 percent
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2) at Denver Broncos - Steelers 39 percent, Broncos 61 percent
Cincinnati Bengals (+7) at Baltimore Ravens - Bengals 80 percent, Ravens 20 percent
San Diego Chargers (PICK) at Oakland Raiders - Chargers 59 percent, Raiders 41 percent
If you take a look at my own 2012 NFL Week 1 predictions and analysis you’ll see that the early money is seeing the same thing that I was, with the sharks all over teams like Chicago, New England, Houston, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Carolina and Atlanta. There were a couple games where my initial reaction was the opposite of the market’s. The Saints and Rams were each neglected by the majority.