June 14th, 2013

Robert Ferringo MLB Handicapping: MLB Series Prices Picks And Analysis For June 14-16

By Robert Ferringo

It’s Friday and that means its time to break down the MLB series prices posted for this weekend’s action. Most of this weekend’s series are pretty mismatched, with five of the 12 series featuring -200 odds or worse. Three series started yesterday so they are off the board.

Here is a breakdown of this weekend’s MLB series prices:

Los Angeles Dodgers (+120) at Pittsburgh (-140) - TAKE PITTSBURGH
I actually really like this matchup for the Pirates. The Dodgers are about to get hit with suspensions from their bean-brawl with the Diamdonbacks earlier this week. They are going to lose Yasiel Puig, who was throwing haymakers in the fights against Arizona, and when you think about how many games he has singlehandedly won for the Dodgers recently, and then compare that to just how few games the Dodgers have actually won lately, you can see why the Pirates are the play here. Pittsburgh is 13-4 at home and have won five of six home series.

Milwaukee (+190) at Cincinnati (-230)
It is a divisional series and a rivalry series so that would make me think about the underdog here – if it were anyone but the loser Brewers. The home team has won nine of 10 in this series and the Reds are 23-7 in their last 30 at home against the Brewers.

Chicago Cubs (+115) at New York Mets (-135)
Losers. I hate the fact that these two loser teams are facing off because now I can’t bet against one or both of them. I wouldn’t touch this series. The Cubs avoid facing Matt Harvey but they also don’t get an appearance from Jeff Smardzija.

St. Louis (-220) at Miami (+180)
I can’t, in good conscience, recommend playing a road favorite at 2-to-1. But how else are you supposed to play this one?

San Francisco (+180) at Atlanta (-220)
I know that the Giants have been pathetic on the road, losing 10 of their last 14 games and 13 of 33 away from home, but this number seems high. The Giants swept the Braves last month at home and now they are trifling with the best home team in baseball. But how long can the Brave win at home at a 75 percent clip?

Philadelphia (+140) at Colorado (-160) - TAKE PHILADELPHIA
This number is completely out of whack. I know the Phillies aren’t any good. But Troy Tulowitski is out for 4-6 weeks and Carlos Gonzalez is questionable for Friday and Saturday. Starting centerfielder Dexter Fowler is doubtful, and Michael Cuddyer just got back from injury. This team is banged up and they aren’t throwing any aces at the Phillies. I think Philadelphia, which admittedly has been struggling as well, offers a ton of value here as a mis-priced underdog. I definitely have cash down on the Phils to get two of three here.

Arizona (-110) at San Diego (-110) - LEAN SAN DIEGO
Just like with the Dodgers-Pirates series, this one depends on the suspensions levied against the Diamondbacks from the brawls on Tuesday. I am confident that Ian Kennedy is going to get bounced from his start on Sunday, which means the Padres will get their licks in on a spot starter. San Diego has been hot and they are catching Arizona in a letdown spot. I lean on the hot home team here.

Detroit (-210) at Minnesota (+170)
These odds are way too strong and the value here is on the Twins. Detroit is not that good on the road. They just aren’t the same team away from Motown. Hell, they just dumped a series in Kansas City this week and the Royals aren’t playing nearly as well as Minnesota right now. The Twins are 10-6 in their last 16. And for a bad team like them it doesn’t get much better. Minnesota avoids Justin Verlander this weekend as well. So even though they will be outgunned in general at least you know they’ll have a shot in all three games.

Chicago White Sox (-220) at Houston (+180)
There is absolutely no way that I would trust the White Sox at 2-to-1 on the road. Houston is pathetic. And Chicago was showing some signs last week. But a worse Astros team took two of three in Chicago last year. This is actually a four-game set, also, which means the White Sox would have to take three games to make this one pay out. Not worth the effort.

N.Y. Yankees (+130) at L.A. Angels (-150)
These two asshole teams can have each other. They are both erratic and I have dumped more money than I care to admit on both of them, particularly with the Yankees getting swept by the Mets and the Angels exploits against Houston. I still am stunned about both of those happenings. Either way, fuck these two teams.

Seattle (+155) at Oakland (-175)
The last time the A’s lost Yoenis Cespedes to the disabled list they went into a little funk. He sat out yesterday’s (garbage) win over the Yankees and is questionable for this weekend’s series. As most of you know, I have been very disappointed with Seattle this year. They did split a four-game series here to start the year. But Seattle’s only road series win in the last two months came (shockingly) over the Yankees. Seattle is just 9-9 in their last 18 games (which came after an eight-game losing streak) and I don’t know that they have the goods.

Washington (-105) at Cleveland (-115)
This is another series play that I endorse. The Indians have been struggling, without a doubt, but they have won seven straight at home against a National League team and they are 16-6 in their last 22 home games. The raggedy Nationals pulled off an upset series win over Colorado this week. But that was thanks to a lucky one-run win on Thursday over the Rockies when Colorado lost three of their best players. The Nats are just 4-9 in their last 13 road games and 4-11 as a road dog. The Nationals are leading with strength though, trotting out aces Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, and then following with Stephen Strasburg coming off the DL. Those pitching matchups are keeping these series numbers tight. But the Indians are just too tough at home. They are the play.

Posted at 2:25 pm | Comments (0)

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