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Contributed By Vegas Sports Informer

Just because the U.S. football season is about to start, don’t forget about the other futbol season that is just around the corner. Yes, I’m talking about English Premier League Soccer and the season starts Saturday, August 14.

Not only are the offshore books preparing for English Premier League but so is Las Vegas. Soccer is getting action in Sin City because of the ESPN TV deals and also because most cable and satellite providers are carrying Fox Sports Soccer. MGM properties have Odds to Win 2010-11 English Premier Soccer Championship and  below are the current odds:

Odds to Win 2010-11 English Premier Soccer Championship
Chelsea 7/5
Manchester United 9/5
Manchester City 6/1
Arsenal 6/1
Liverpool 6/1
Tottenham Hotspur 15/1
Everton 20/1
Aston Villa 30/1
Newcastle United 50/1
Birmingham City 75/1
Blackburn Rovers 75/1
Stoke City 75/1
Fulham 100/1
Sunderland 100/1
Bolton Wanderers 150/1
Wolverhamton Wanderers 250/1
Wigan Athletic 300/1
West Ham Untied 300/1
West Bromwich Albion 300/1
Blackpool 300/1

This year is going to be the first that we offer soccer predictions to our clients. I, personally, will be releasing picks in the English Premier League, UEFA Champions League and National Team Games (which are mostly friendly matches and Euro 2012 qualifiers).

I have been betting International Soccer for years and our contacts in the casinos and overseas help us with updated news and odds. If you have any doubts just look at our success on 2008 Euro Cup and our outstanding 2010 World Cups numbers, both of which can be found HERE.

One bright side about working in the casino business in the past is that we have gained good contacts and friends over in England, Ireland, and Spain. Not only are these contacts creditable but some are former Las Vegas natives in the gambling business. Our first matches will be released the weekend of August 14-15, and throughout the fall, winter and following spring you can expect our selections to come each Monday (weekday plays) and Friday (weekend plays) at 1:30 P.M. EST.

Check back on docsports.com for future blogs, articles and upcoming plays from Vegas Sports Informer. International soccer is going to be big for us because we have the tools, the contacts, and the past soccer records to show the out-of-country soccer gurus that the Vegas Sports Informer can and will be as successful in International Soccer picks as I am with my regular football picks.

By Robert Ferringo

I am a huge believer in sitting rookie quarterbacks and letting them learn. And I don’t see the argument for the other side. There have been players that have been exceptions. Ben Roethlisberger, Flacco, Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez come to mind. But what did all of them have in common? You guessed it: they were fortunate enough to be drafted by teams that had dominating offensive lines, exceptional running games and outstanding defenses. And what is overlooked is that with the exception of Ryan (who, admittedly, didn’t have a “dominating” defense) the other three guys were pretty bad for the majority of their rookie seasons. And had they been on lesser teams they likely would have been a disaster. (Also, Ryan experienced a pretty rough sophomore slump. I think Sanchez is headed for the same fate. Again, young quarterbacks can’t be counted on.)

So, I am 99 percent opposed to taking a quarterback No. 1 overall. I am about 95 percent against taking a quarterback in the first round. And I think that the odds back me up. Here is a list of every first round quarterback taken since 1990:

1990 – Andre Ware (Detroit), Jeff George (Indianapolis)
1991 – Dan McGwire (Seattle), Todd Marinovich (Oakland)
1992 – David Klingler (Cincinnati), Dave Brown (N.Y. Giants), Tommy Maddox (Broncos)
1993 – Drew Bledsoe (New England), Rick Mirer (Seattle)
1994 – Heath Shuler (Washington), Trent Dilfer (Tampa Bay)
1995 – Steve McNair (Houston), Kerry Collins (Carolina)
1996 – NONE
1997 – Jim Druckenmiller (San Francisco)
1998 – Peyton
Manning (Indianapolis), Ryan Leaf (San Diego)
1999 – Akili Smith (Cincinnati), Daunte Culpepper (Minnesota), Cade McNown (Chicago)
2000 – Chad Pennington (New York Jets)
2001 – Mike Vick (Atlanta)
2002 – David Carr (Houston), Joey Harrington (Detroit), Patrick Ramsey (Washington)
2003 – Carson Palmer (Cincinnati), Byron Leftwich (Jacksonville), Kyle Boller (Baltimore), Rex Grossman (Chicago)
2004 – Eli Manning (N.Y. Giants), Philip Rivers (San Diego), Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh), J.P. Losman (Buffalo)
2005 – Alex Smith (San Francisco), Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay), Jason Campbell (Washington)
2006 – Matt Leinart (Arizona), Jay Cutler (Denver)
2007 – JaMarcus Russell (Oakland), Brady Quinn (Cleveland)
2008 – Matt Ryan (Atlanta), Joe Flacco (Baltimore)
2009 – Matt Stafford (Detroit), Mark Sanchez (N.Y. Jets), Josh Freeman (Tampa Bay)

That means there have been 44 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the last 20 years. I think that the jury is still out over the nine that have been picked in the last four years. So of the other 35 first rounders I would say that eight of them have been very good (Bledsoe, McNair, Collins, P. Manning, Palmer, E. Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger). I would say that two of them have been pretty good (Pennington, Rodgers) and were decent picks. I would say that four have had their moments, but in general didn’t live up to their positioning (George, Maddox, Culpepper, Dilfer). And I would say that the other 21 were outright busts and complete wastes as selections.

By my math that means that 10 of the 35 first round quarterbacks taken before 2006 were successful while the other 25 were, well, not. Compare that to the four of 10 successful quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall since 1990 (I’m not counting Stafford yet) and the 50-50 success ratio I laid out in the lede is starting to look generous.

What’s more, is that the numbers are actually uglier when you really get into it. In the last decade (2000-2009) there were only 12 Pro Bowl berths from the group of 26 quarterbacks taken in the first round. None of the players has been on the first team All-Pro. In the decade prior, quarterbacks taken outside the Top 10 or quarterbacks taken in the first round on teams that had seven or more wins actually saw their teams produce a worse record the following year.

So if Detroit and St. Louis somehow think that they have their quarterback issues solved, or that their young guns will give them something to build on moving forward, I hate to tell them that they are probably sorely mistaken.

By Robert Ferringo

This week I’m going to start to release my 2010 NFL Previews. I’ll be rolling out the usual division-by-division format, with a look at every team in the league and what I think that their betting value is. Then in a couple weeks I’ll be releasing my famous NFL Futures, which have been a moneymaker for three straight years and, if you include other sports, have been an exceptional source of income (over $4,000 in profit) in the last three years.

But before we get to that, I wanted to post some updated NFL Season Win Totals for futures betting. These lines our courtesy of The Greek and of Vegas Insider. You’re going to see some pretty static numbers this week and next, but then by mid-August you’re going to start to see some flexing in the numbers. Any sharp bettor wants to be out in front of the curve when placing a wager, so I think you may find the best value by getting your wagers in early.

That said, the longer that you wait is still OK. You may not get the best numbers but you’ll have more information to work with, in regards to injuries, strategy, coaching maneuvers, and just watching how teams perform in the preseason. Some teams can definitely pick up momentum with a strong training camp and I can generally tell who is going to come firing out the gates by the way they approach their August tune-ups. For example, I knew that Miami and Atlanta were going to be much improved in 2008 by the aggressive, fired-up way that they approached the preseason. And last year it was San Francisco that came out cracking skulls in camp and that carried over to a decent little season. There are a lot of variables to consider during the regular season, but the early “buzz” of August can give you a little insight into what to expect when the bullets start firing for real.

So below is a look at some early NFL Season wins futures totals. Again, these are open lines and we’ll revisit the biggest movements again right before the regular season starts and see if the money is on its game or if the wise guys and public are set up to get buried again. Also, I will give a bit more commentary on these later this month, after I have release my futures selections. I don’t want to tip my hand.

Here are the 2010 NFL Season Win Totals for futures betting:

2010-11 NFL REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
Team        Open    Current
Buffalo         5      5
Detroit         5      5
St. Louis       5      5
Cleveland     5.5      5.5
Tampa Bay     6      6
Oakland         6      6
Kansas City    6.5      6.5
Carolina         7      7
Jacksonville    7      7
Denver          7.5      7.5
Seattle           7.5      7.5
Arizona         7.5      7.5
Chicago         8      8
Cincinnati      8      8
Houston         8      8
Tennessee      8      8
Washington     8      8
Philadelphia     8      8
N.Y. Giants     8.5      8.5
San Francisco  8.5      8.5
Miami             8.5      8.5
Atlanta            9      9
Pittsburgh       9      9
N.Y. Jets         9.5      9.5
Minnesota      9.5      9.5
New England  9.5      9.5
Green Bay       9.5      9.5
Baltimore        10      10.0
Dallas             10      10
New Orleans   10.5      10.5
Indianapolis    11      11
San Diego        11      11

By Robert Ferringo

Ken White, C.O.O of the Las Vegas Sports Consultants, was a guest on ESPN today talking about some of the NFL Futures Season Win Totals on the board out in Vegas right now. It was a good chat and gave some decent insight into what the books were looking at, but moreso just gave the opinion on certain football teams – college and in the NFL – from one of the most influential men in Vegas.

Here were some highlights:

- Colin Cowherd released his top four NFL season win totals futures bets and his top four college football season win totals futures bets on Wednesday. He like the Bears ‘under’ 8.0 wins, but White actually disagreed. White is high on the defense in Chicago and thinks that the Bears should be closer to 10 wins this year.

- White agreed with Cowherd – and I have to say that I have felt this way all offseason as well – that the New York Jets are way overrated. I couldn’t agree more and am glad we’re on the same side there.

- White is high on Arizona in college football and feels that Mike Stoops has them “rolling in the right direction”. He quickly ran through the schedule and said that, “This is a team that could top the eight wins and could get to 10.” That’s interesting to me because I think it means that Arizona will be favored over Iowa this year in a key nonconference game.

White mentioned that his shop has five NFL handicappers (so if you go it alone in the NFL season it’s really one-against-five), and I would love to be there to see how some of the disagreements shake out in those rooms on a Sunday night when it comes to releasing lines.

And once again, that’s why I like Colin Cowherd. I’m not a junkie and I don’t listen to his show very often. But I have nothing but respect for that guy because he’s a Realist and because he is pragmatic about gambling. Of course, ESPN is the perfect example of the clear and utter hypocrisy about gambling in this country. They will talk about odds, have handicappers and oddsmakers come on their programs and platforms, they will discuss betting, they will have radio jockeys release against the spread picks all over the country every week, and they will basically have no problem with wagering. But they wouldn’t hand out Doc’s Sports Journal in any of their ESPN bars and restaurants because they are owned by Disney and Disney is a “family company”. So at the corporate level the Disney Corp. is 100 percent against gambling (and Jews, at least when Walt was running the show) but sports betting and the culture of sports betting is ingrained in all of the sports programming that ESPN does.

Anyway, the interview was quick and besides those three points there really wasn’t much to be taken from it. (Also, White loves Aaron Rodgers. For what that’s worth.) But I thought I’d pass it on.

By Robert Ferringo

I just posted an article on The Mothership discussing a full breakdown of BCS National Championship Odds and Predictions. I wanted to post some college futures odds here, specifically the ones I used in my story, and let you know that you can get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Here are some current BCS National Championship Odds, courtesy of The Greek.com:

Alabama          +400
Arkansas         +3200
Auburn         +4000
Arizona         +10000
Arizona State    +12500
Boise State         +800
Boston College    +12500
BYU             +12500
California         +10000
Cincinnati         +10000
Clemson         +5000
Florida         +800
Florida State     +5000
Georgia         +4000
Georgia Tech    +6000
Iowa         +2000
Kansas State     +12500
LSU             +3000
Miami         +2000
Michigan         +7500
Michigan State         +10000
Missouri         +8000
Mississippi         +10000
Nebraska         +1500
North Carolina     +6000
Notre Dame     +4000
Ohio State         +600
Oklahoma         +600
Oklahoma State         +12500
Oregon         +5000
Oregon State     +5000
Penn State         +3000
Pittsburgh         +6000
South Carolina    +7500
South Florida     +7500
Southern Cal
TCU             +1800
Tennessee         +8000
Texas         +1000
Texas Tech         +8000
UCLA         +6000
Utah         +12500
Virginia Tech         +1800
Washington         +5000
West Virginia         +8000
Wisconsin         +4000
Field         +1500

By Robert Ferringo

I did a quick writeup over the weekend breaking down the first six names in the Home Run Derby field. The last two names have been announced, and Nick Swisher and Chris Young have been added to the list to make eight participants in tonight’s homer hitting contest.

The event starts at 8 p.m. EST and is being held in Anaheim at Angels Stadium.

I actually like both Swisher and Young in this event, and I could see either making it to the final round. Cabrera still is the solid favorite.

Here are the odds that I found this afternoon, courtesy of Bodog.com:

Chris Young (+800)
Corey Hart (+550)
David Ortiz (+380)
Hanley Ramirez (+750)
Matt Holliday (+380)
Miguel Cabrera (+250)
Nick Swisher (+600)
Vernon Wells (+750)

Not a ton of value here. If I were wagering, I think I would put 2 Units on Cabrera, then 1 Unit apiece on Young, Ramirez, Swisher and Wells. You would now have five players in an eight-man field, and if any one of them were to win you would turn a profit.

By Robert Ferringo

So, it looks like Sports’ Other Evil Empire, the Yankees, are on the verge of yet another raping and pillaging. Rumor has it that the Yankees are on the verge of signing Cliff Lee. Shocking.

But what is interesting about this situation is that Lee is slated to start against the Yankees tonight.
So now Lee is faced with a bit of a conundrum. If he knows he is going to the Yankees sooner rather than later, does he really have motivation to beat them tonight? In a way, wouldn’t he be beating himself, and not in the fun way? Should he “roll over” for what will soon be his team, in a similar Jerry-West-trading-Pau-Gasol-right-before-going-back-to-join-the-Lakers way?

I know I would be betting on it. And the reality is that if Lee pitches, there is no way his head can be right. If Lee doesn’t pitch - likely because he’s about to be dealt and the Mariners wouldn’t want to have him get hurt and get nothing for it - then the Mariners would A) be trotting out some garbage spot starter and B) have to feel like a bunch of ass-clowns because the front office will have (rightfully) clearly mailed it in on the season. And with a break for the All Star game coming up could you blame the Mariners for mentally checking out before a “vacation” and rolling over in this series? I know I wouldn’t.

Either way, I obviously love the Yankees tonight (remember to bet them as “action” that means that the wager stands even if there is a pitching change; be sure to check out your books’ policies on this) and I really like the ‘over’ as well. This whole thing is another example of how we, as handicappers, actually have it tougher than regular bettors (which makes it more impressive how much we win!) in terms of releasing plays. At Doc’s we have to have our plays up by noon. I can’t wait for last-minute changes like this to release plays. If so, things would look a lot different each day.

By Robert Ferringo

In case you couldn’t put it together from my kind of rambling, drunken post last night, I really couldn’t care less about the LeBron James issue and his free agency. (And no, writing about it on my little blog here isn’t perpetuating it and helping fuel the hype. That ship has sailed. And it was really just a way to try to cash in on it with a quick reax post. “Thanks, bubby.”) I haven’t paid any attention to it this summer, have tried to change the channel whenever the topic came up on TV or radio, and have generally just punched friends in the face when they’ve asked my opinion on it.

I’m more interested in the “darker forces” at work here. And I came across a great post at Deadspin that kind of sums up what has gone down. Check it out HERE. And there is a second, also interesting article HERE.

Now ESPN and Deadspin are two sties and outlets that I try to avoid whenever possible. (ESPN is nothing but corporate whores and are Pure Evil. Deadspin are Forum Freaks and Trolls with a really good megaphone.) But the article works and touches on something that is of the utmost interest to me (media manipulation and corporate control of public perceptions). It’s blunt, it’s not the most intelligent critique, but it touches on what is, to me, the main point and most important aspect of the LeBron-mania:

We are the sheep. And ESPN is the shepherd. Sport has long been dead.

(PS - While I write this Scott Van Pelt, one of the few ESPN folks that I genuinely like, is busy sucking himself and his company off because of the rating that they scored last night with the LeBron-a-thon. Awesome. This before cutting to Eric Snow to get his impressions of LeBron’s decision. I guess Greta Von Susteren was busy.)

By Robert Ferringo

P.S., I’m not 100 percent sure which of these players have signed, are under contract, or whatever. I do know that at the start of free agency each of them were unrestricted free agents. So if I were building the Heat from here, below is a list of guys that I would be calling. They aren’t in any particular order. But I know that the Heat have about six slots to fill (they have LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Chalmers, plus three rookies). I would fill them with a mish-mash from this group, with greater weight given to the big men, then shooters, then point guards:

Bobby Simmons
Rodney Carney
Brad Miller
Ronald Murray
Hakim Warrick
T.J. Ford
Luke Ridnour
Carlos Arroyo
Udonis Haslem
Mike Miller
Joey Graham
Wesley Matthews
Kyle Korver
Devean George
Steve Blake
Derek Fisher
Larry Hughes
Brendan Haywood
Luis Scola
Jamal Crawford

I would try to grab Scola, Warrick, Miller, Haslem and Haywood. Get three of those guys. Then I would try to get two of the following: Miller, Korver, Hughes, Carney or Crawford. After that, I’m thinking I would get one of these guys: Ford, Simmons, Fisher, or Blake. The rest are there in case you can’t get your first pick.

But the reality is that all of these guys are/were unrestricted free agents and I think that any one of them would be willing to take a little less money in order to play on the clear-cut NBA favorites to win the 2010-11 NBA championship. (Again, I want to emphasize that this is a snap-judgment thing. I am not 100 percent on who is still available and/or what they would command in salary. I’m just saying that this group was UFA’s and I’m trying to project who will fill out the roster on this squad.)

So if they followed the Ferringo Plan, the team would look like this:

James
Wade
Carney
Miller
Simmons
Blake
Chalmers
Scola
Warrick
Miller
Bosh
(The other three slots are for rookies; but what will they contribute? Really?)

Yeah, that would be a title team. With ease. I would start Chalmers, Wade, James, Bosh and B. Miller. Warrick and Scola would be the bigs off the bench. Carney would be the second-team scorer. Blake, M. Miller and Simmons wold be ball handlers and shooters. In the playoffs I would shorten my rotation to Chalmers, Wade, James, Bosh, B. Miller, Blake, M. Miller, Carney, Scola.

Champ-ion-ship!

By Robert Ferringo

I have had less than zero interest in LeBron James this summer.

Honestly, I couldn’t have cared less.

However, now that he has made his move to Miami I have this to say about the whole situation: who gives a damn?

My whole take on the free agent situation of 2010 is: call me when it’s over. When the dust has settled, when training camp starts, and when teams actually have settled rosters then I become interested. The rest is just noise and annoyance. Do I care that LeBron James has gone to Miami, home of the WORST FANS IN ALL OF PROFESSIONAL SPORTS? No, I really don’t.

(And I just want to re-iterate: Miami fans are the worst. Actually, there is no such thing as a “Miami fan”. Fans of Miami sports are the most fair-weather, bandwagon, garbage, Johnny-come-lately fans - no matter what sport - that there are in this country. I loathe “Miami fans”. I loathe them. I would wish them ill will but the reality is that anyone that lives in Florida is already cursed enough.)

Not until September, that is. And once the games, lines, futures, etc. start being pumped out then it is my job to care. And I will. But for now, nope, I really don’t give a &*#%. And if people cared half as much about the oil spill in the Gulf as they did about LeBron James then we might all live in a little different world. But that’s neither here nor there.

But since I’m bored and I’ve been drinking, I’ll go ahead and chime in – for the first time – on the most meaningless subject that an inordinate number of people have invested in this summer.

This is what I think about LeBron’s time in Cleveland: are you kidding me?

Mo Williams is the best player that you could surround James with over the last seven years? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Of all the trades, moves, maneuvers, and swaps that have occurred over the last seven years, a trade for Wally Szczerbiak and a trade for over-the-hill Antwan Jamison is the best that Cleveland could manage? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Your city sucks; the Indians suck, the Browns suck, the Cavaliers suck, and you blame a guy for wanting to run away? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

You hired Mike Brown, an unproven, inexperienced, nobody coach to steer the ship for LeBron’s time in Cleveland? You weren’t at all put off the first year they made the playoffs when he was coordinating his eyeglasses with his suits? That didn’t tip you off that maybe, just maybe, this guy was a douche? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

The one that really gets me is the Mo Williams thing. Seriously, the Cavaliers didn’t do anything to surround James with actual players when he was with the Cavs. I mean, Williams is the best you could come up with? Really? He’s the best player that you could put next to James? Seriously? Yeah, I have no idea how he would want to leave Delonte West and Big Z and Ben Wallace. No idea at all. Who could want to play with Dwyane Wade after playing with Mo Williams all these years? Will there be a big adjustment period, you think?

I have been pointing to that fact for year. The idea that “LeBron couldn’t win the big one in Cleveland” is a joke. Who could win with the ass-clowns that he was playing with? No one. The Cavaliers, honestly, aren’t any good. We’re going to find that out very quickly this fall when their leader is gone. They drafted poorly, they made ridiculous decisions in free agency, and they weren’t at all bold when it came to trades or building a team. And that, my friends, is why they no longer have King James.

(Wait, Danny Ferry is a Loser? Really? When did this happen? He couldn’t put a team together and was an utter failure as a general manager? Seriously? But he was such a good player and success a rousing success everywhere he went in life? I can’t believe it. Hey, Dan Gilbert, you are a dick for handling everything the way that you have. Seriously, you are a baby. You hired Mike Brown and Danny Ferry. But it is LeBron’s fault. Amazing. Cry about it. Good luck with that roster, jag-off.)

Also, the idea that “LeBron’s legacy will be tarnished because he couldn’t win a title on his own,” is the dumbest thing I’ve heard in a long time. And I live in Georgia. It’s baby talk. It’s whiny, ESPN bobblehead talk. It’s immature and it isn’t reality, and the same people suggesting this now will have their faces in LeBron’s lap once he wins a ring. (And he will.)

Does anyone remember that just a few years ago Kobe Bryant was doing everything in his power to force his way out of Los Angeles? Do you remember that after Shaq left this guy could barely, BARELY, take his team to the playoffs? The Lakers sucked, and Kobe was just another All Star struggling with a bad team. But then former Laker Jerry West, who was on his way out with Memphis, made one of the shadiest, most one-sided deals in NBA history in trading Pau Gasol to the Lakers. (I’m sure if West hadn’t played for the Lakers, and wasn’t still involved with the organization, he still would have made that move) and all of a sudden Kobe had help.

(And if you don’t think that Kobe needed help, you obviously didn’t watch the fourth quarter of Game 7 this year. Without Gasol, Kobe is just another dude that came up small in the biggest game of his career. But Gasol was a Man in a game that could only be won by Men, and now Kobe gets to bask in the glory of a title that he didn’t, in any way, seal himself. Would the Lakers have been there without him? Hell no. But did Kobe win that title? Absolutely not. He was a complete and total non-factor in the second half of that game, because it was for Big Boys. And we all know he’s not one of those.)

Did Magic Johnson win a title by himself? Or did he have some guys named Worthy, Kareem, Rambis (had to!) and Thompson to work with? Did Bird win a title by himself? Do you think some guys named McHale, Parrish, and Ainge had anything to do about it? How about Jordan? Ever hear of Pippen, Kukoc, Wennington and Stacey King (HA!)? Anyone?

No one wins a title by himself. Anyone that has ever played basketball in their lives knows that you are only as good as the players around you. So give me a break that if James wins a championship in Miami it will somehow mean less than if he won it with Mo Williams in Cleveland. Weird. LeBron couldn’t win a title with a bunch of garbage players in one of the worst cities in the country. Wow. I’m stunned.

Hey, Cleveland, you suck. Get over it. Most older, former-industrial cities in the Rust Belt of this broken down, has-been country do. I don’t feel sorry for you. At all. Don’t beat yourself up over the fact that James is gone. But do go ahead and beat yourself up over the fact that a recent poll listed you as the most miserable city in the United States. And go ahead and revel in the fact that you contributed to George Bush getting re-elected in 2006. That’s all you. But don’t sweat LeBron. It was clear that he was leaving. And he’s all the better for it.

And when LeBron drops 48 on the Cavs in his first game back in Cleveland this winter, I want you to think of two thing, the first being, “The NBA is for losers.”

The second being, “Yeah, Miami covered the spread and I…….GOT……..PAID!!!!!”